Page 39 - 陳威豪

表 18 : STEPS 情境下 25% 市占率之預測自由現金流量計算表 (百萬)

2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F

全球電動車銷售(千輛) 3,000 6,500 6,551 7,651 9,121 11,085 11,577 14,224 17,486 21,510 26,478

TESLA 總銷售量(輛) 499,550 936,172 982,695 1,243,271 1,596,123 2,078,513 2,315,340 3,022,494 3,934,373 5,108,696 6,619,450

市占率 16.65% 14.40% 15% 16.25% 17.50% 18.75% 20% 21.25% 22.50% 23.75% 25%

營業收入 31,536 53,823 62,230 82,481 110,703 150,428 174,550 236,975 320,335 431,353 578,875

營業成本 24,906 40,217 43,561 57,324 76,385 103,043 118,694 159,958 214,624 286,850 382,057

營業毛利 6,630 13,606 18,669 25,157 34,318 47,385 55,856 77,017 105,710 144,503 196,817

營業費用 4,636 7,083 8,090 10,723 14,391 19,556 22,691 30,807 41,643 56,076 75,254

營業淨利 1,994 6,523 10,579 14,434 19,927 27,829 33,164 46,210 64,067 88,427 121,564

所得稅準備金 292 699 1,164 1,588 2,192 3,061 3,648 5,083 7,047 9,727 13,372

稅後淨利 862 5,644 9,415 12,846 17,735 24,768 29,516 41,127 57,020 78,700 108,192

營業活動現金流量調整 5,081 5,853 6,500 7,150 7,865 8,652 9,517 10,468 11,515 12,667 13,933

營業活動之淨現金流 5,943 11,497 15,915 19,996 25,600 33,419 39,033 51,595 68,535 91,367 122,125

資本支出 (3,157) (6,482) (7,130) (7,843) (8,628) (9,490) (10,439) (11,483) (12,632) (13,895) (15,284)

自由現金流 2,786 5,015 8,785 12,153 16,972 23,929 28,594 40,112 55,903 77,472 106,841

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