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表  19 : SDS  情境下  25%  市占率之預測自由現金流量計算表  (百萬)

      2020   2021   2022F   2023F   2024F   2025F   2026F   2027F   2028F   2029F   2030F

 全球電動車銷售(千輛)   3,000   6,500   9,732   11,699   13,437   15,498   18,897   23,782   30,012   37,965   48,129

 TESLA 總銷售量(輛)   499,550  936,172  1,459,755  1,901,039 2,351,458 2,905,894 3,779,320  5,053,590  6,752,678 9,016,711  12,032,300

 市占率   16.65%  14.40%   15%   16.25%   17.50%  18.75%   20%   21.25%   22.50%  23.75%   25%

 營業收入   31,536  53,823   92,441   126,118  163,091  210,308  284,917   396,221   549,800  761,326  1,052,231

 營業成本   24,906  40,217   64,709   87,652   112,533  144,061  193,744   267,449   368,366  506,282   694,473

 營業毛利   6,630   13,606   27,732   38,466   50,558   66,247   91,173   128,772   181,434  255,044   357,759

 營業費用   4,636   7,083   12,017   16,395   21,202   27,340   37,039   51,509   71,474   98,972   136,790

 營業淨利   1,994   6,523   15,715   22,071   29,356   38,907   54,134   77,263   109,960  156,072   220,969

 所得稅準備金   292   699   1,729   2,428   3,229   4,280   5,955   8,499   12,096   17,168   24,307

 稅後淨利   862   5,644   13,986   19,643   26,127   34,627   48,179   68,764   97,864   138,904   196,662

 營業活動現金流量調整   5,081   5,853   6,785   7,803   8,973   10,319   11,867   13,647   15,694   18,048   20,755

 營業活動之淨現金流   5,943   11,497   20,771   27,446   35,100   44,946   60,046   82,411   113,558  156,952   217,418

 資本支出   (3,157)  (6,482)   (7,454)   (8,572)   (9,858)  (11,337)  (13,038)  (14,993)  (17,242)  (19,829)   (22,803)

 自由現金流   2,786   5,015   13,317   18,873   25,242   33,609   47,009   67,418   96,316   137,124   194,615





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