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表 19 : SDS 情境下 25% 市占率之預測自由現金流量計算表 (百萬)

2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F

全球電動車銷售(千輛) 3,000 6,500 9,732 11,699 13,437 15,498 18,897 23,782 30,012 37,965 48,129

TESLA 總銷售量(輛) 499,550 936,172 1,459,755 1,901,039 2,351,458 2,905,894 3,779,320 5,053,590 6,752,678 9,016,711 12,032,300

市占率 16.65% 14.40% 15% 16.25% 17.50% 18.75% 20% 21.25% 22.50% 23.75% 25%

營業收入 31,536 53,823 92,441 126,118 163,091 210,308 284,917 396,221 549,800 761,326 1,052,231

營業成本 24,906 40,217 64,709 87,652 112,533 144,061 193,744 267,449 368,366 506,282 694,473

營業毛利 6,630 13,606 27,732 38,466 50,558 66,247 91,173 128,772 181,434 255,044 357,759

營業費用 4,636 7,083 12,017 16,395 21,202 27,340 37,039 51,509 71,474 98,972 136,790

營業淨利 1,994 6,523 15,715 22,071 29,356 38,907 54,134 77,263 109,960 156,072 220,969

所得稅準備金 292 699 1,729 2,428 3,229 4,280 5,955 8,499 12,096 17,168 24,307

稅後淨利 862 5,644 13,986 19,643 26,127 34,627 48,179 68,764 97,864 138,904 196,662

營業活動現金流量調整 5,081 5,853 6,785 7,803 8,973 10,319 11,867 13,647 15,694 18,048 20,755

營業活動之淨現金流 5,943 11,497 20,771 27,446 35,100 44,946 60,046 82,411 113,558 156,952 217,418

資本支出 (3,157) (6,482) (7,454) (8,572) (9,858) (11,337) (13,038) (14,993) (17,242) (19,829) (22,803)

自由現金流 2,786 5,015 13,317 18,873 25,242 33,609 47,009 67,418 96,316 137,124 194,615

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