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表  15 : SDS  情境下  5%  市占率之預測自由現金流量計算表  (百萬)

      2020   2021   2022F   2023F   2024F   2025F   2026F   2027F   2028F   2029F   2030F

 全球電動車銷售(千輛)   3,000   6,500   9,732   11,699   13,437   15,498   18,897   23,782   30,012   37,965   48,129

 TESLA 總銷售量(輛)   499,550  936,172  1,459,755  1,608,571 1,679,613 1,743,536 1,889,660  2,080,890  2,250,893 2,372,819  2,406,460

 市占率   16.65%  14.40%  15.00%   13.75%   12.50%  11.25%   10.00%   8.75%   7.50%   6.25%   5.00%

 營業收入   31,536  53,823   92,441   106,716  116,493  126,185  142,458   163,150   183,267  200,349  210,446

 營業成本   24,906  40,217   64,709   74,167   80,380   86,437   96,872   110,126   122,789  133,232  138,895

 營業毛利   6,630   13,606   27,732   32,548   36,113   39,748   45,587   53,024   60,478   67,117   71,552

 營業費用   4,636   7,083   12,017   13,873   15,144   16,404   18,520   21,209   23,825   26,045   27,358

 營業淨利   1,994   6,523   15,715   18,675   20,969   23,344   27,067   31,814   36,653   41,072   44,194

 所得稅準備金   292   699   1,729   2,054   2,307   2,568   2,977   3,500   4,032   4,518   4,861

 稅後淨利   862   5,644   13,986   16,621   18,662   20,776   24,090   28,315   32,621   36,554   39,332

 營業活動現金流量調整   5,081   5,853   6,785   7,803   8,973   10,319   11,867   13,647   15,694   18,048   20,755

 營業活動之淨現金流   5,943   11,497   20,771   24,424   27,635   31,095   35,957   41,962   48,316   54,602   60,088

 資本支出   (3,157)  (6,482)   (7,454)   (8,572)   (9,858)  (11,337)  (13,038)  (14,993)  (17,242)  (19,829)  (22,803)

 自由現金流   2,786   5,015   13,317   15,851   17,777   19,758   22,919   26,968   31,073   34,773   37,285




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