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表 14 : STEPS 情境下 5% 市占率之預測自由現金流量計算表 (百萬)
2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
全球電動車銷售(千輛) 3,000 6,500 6,551 7,651 9,121 11,085 11,577 14,224 17,486 21,510 26,478
TESLA 總銷售量(輛) 499,550 936,172 982,695 1,051,999 1,140,088 1,247,108 1,157,670 1,244,556 1,311,458 1,344,394 1,323,890
市占率 16.65% 14.40% 15.00% 13.75% 12.50% 11.25% 10.00% 8.75% 7.50% 6.25% 5.00%
營業收入 31,536 53,823 62,230 69,791 79,073 90,257 87,275 97,578 106,778 113,514 115,775
營業成本 24,906 40,217 43,561 48,505 54,561 61,826 59,347 65,865 71,541 75,487 76,411
營業毛利 6,630 13,606 18,669 21,286 24,513 28,431 27,928 31,713 35,237 38,027 39,363
營業費用 4,636 7,083 8,090 9,073 10,280 11,733 11,346 12,685 13,881 14,757 15,051
營業淨利 1,994 6,523 10,579 12,214 14,233 16,697 16,582 19,028 21,356 23,270 24,313
所得稅準備金 292 699 1,164 1,343 1,566 1,837 1,824 2,093 2,349 2,560 2,674
稅後淨利 862 5,644 9,415 10,870 12,668 14,861 14,758 16,935 19,007 20,711 21,638
營業活動現金流量調整 5,081 5,853 6,500 7,150 7,865 8,652 9,517 10,468 11,515 12,667 13,933
營業活動之淨現金流 5,943 11,497 15,915 18,020 20,533 23,512 24,275 27,403 30,522 33,377 35,572
資本支出 (3,157) (6,482) (7,130) (7,843) (8,628) (9,490) (10,439) (11,483) (12,632) (13,895) (15,284)
自由現金流 2,786 5,015 8,785 10,177 11,905 14,022 13,836 15,920 17,890 19,483 20,287
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