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表 10 : SDS 情境下之預測自由現金流量計算表 (百萬)

2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F

全球電動車銷售(千輛) 3,000 6,500 9,731.7 11,698.7 13,436.9 15,498.1 18,896.6 23,781.6 30,011.9 37,965.1 48,129.2

TESLA 總銷售量(輛) 499,550 936,172 1,459,755 1,754,805 2,015,535 2,324,715 2,834,490 3,567,240 4,501,785 5,694,765 7,219,380

市占率 16.65% 14.40% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%

營業收入 31,536 53,823 92,441 116,417 139,792 168,246 213,688 279,686 366,533 480,838 631,339

營業成本 24,906 40,217 64,709 80,910 96,457 115,249 145,308 188,788 245,577 319,757 416,684

營業毛利 6,630 13,606 27,732 35,507 43,336 52,998 68,380 90,898 120,956 161,081 214,655

營業費用 4,636 7,083 12,017 15,134 18,173 21,872 27,779 36,359 47,649 62,509 82,074

營業淨利 1,994 6,523 15,715 20,373 25,163 31,126 40,601 54,539 73,307 98,572 132,581

所得稅準備金 292 699 1,729 2,241 2,768 3,424 4,466 5,999 8,064 10,843 14,584

稅後淨利 862 5,644 13,986 18,132 22,395 27,702 36,135 48,539 65,243 87,729 117,997

營業活動現金流量調整 5,081 5,853 6,785 7,803 8,973 10,319 11,867 13,647 15,694 18,048 20,755

營業活動之淨現金流 5,943 11,497 20,771 25,935 31,368 38,021 48,002 62,187 80,937 105,777 138,753

資本支出 (3,157) (6,482) (7,454) (8,572) (9,858) (11,337) (13,038) (14,993) (17,242) (19,829) (22,803)

自由現金流 2,786 5,015 13,317 17,362 21,510 26,684 34,964 47,193 63,695 85,948 115,950

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