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表 9 : STEPS 情境下之預測自由現金流量計算表 (百萬)
2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
全球電動車銷售(千輛) 3,000 6,500 6,551.3 7,650.9 9,120.7 11,085.4 11,576.7 14,223.5 17,486.1 21,510.3 26,477.8
TESLA 總銷售量(輛) 499,550 936,172 982,695 1,147,635 1,368,105 1,662,810 1,736,505 2,133,525 2,622,915 3,226,545 3,971,670
市占率 16.65% 14.40% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 15.00%
營業收入 31,536 53,823 62,230 76,136 94,888 120,342 130,912 167,277 213,556 272,433 347,325
營業成本 24,906 40,217 43,561 52,915 65,473 82,435 89,020 112,912 143,083 181,168 229,234
營業毛利 6,630 13,606 18,669 23,222 29,415 37,908 41,892 54,365 70,474 91,265 118,090
營業費用 4,636 7,083 8,090 9,898 12,335 15,645 17,019 21,746 27,762 35,416 45,152
營業淨利 1,994 6,523 10,579 13,324 17,080 22,263 24,873 32,619 42,711 55,849 72,938
所得稅準備金 292 699 1,164 1,466 1,879 2,449 2,736 3,588 4,698 6,143 8,023
稅後淨利 862 5,644 9,415 11,858 15,201 19,814 22,137 29,031 38,013 49,705 64,915
營業活動現金流量調整 5,081 5,853 6,500 7,150 7,865 8,652 9,517 10,468 11,515 12,667 13,933
營業活動之淨現金流 5,943 11,497 15,915 19,008 23,066 28,466 31,654 39,499 49,528 62,372 78,848
資本支出 (3,157) (6,482) (7,130) (7,843) (8,628) (9,490) (10,439) (11,483) (12,632) (13,895) (15,284)
自由現金流 2,786 5,015 8,785 11,165 14,439 18,976 21,215 28,016 36,897 48,477 63,564
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