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表  10 : SDS  情境下之預測自由現金流量計算表  (百萬)

                                            2020      2021     2022F      2023F      2024F     2025F     2026F       2027F     2028F      2029F     2030F

             全球電動車銷售(千輛)                    3,000    6,500     9,731.7   11,698.7  13,436.9  15,498.1  18,896.6  23,781.6  30,011.9  37,965.1  48,129.2

             TESLA 總銷售量(輛)                 499,550  936,172  1,459,755  1,754,805 2,015,535 2,324,715 2,834,490  3,567,240  4,501,785 5,694,765  7,219,380

             市占率                           16.65%  14.40%       15%        15%        15%       15%       15%        15%        15%        15%       15%

             營業收入                          31,536  53,823      92,441    116,417  139,792  168,246  213,688         279,686    366,533  480,838  631,339

             營業成本                          24,906  40,217      64,709     80,910    96,457    115,249  145,308      188,788    245,577  319,757  416,684

             營業毛利                           6,630    13,606    27,732     35,507    43,336     52,998    68,380     90,898     120,956  161,081  214,655

             營業費用                           4,636    7,083     12,017     15,134    18,173     21,872    27,779     36,359     47,649    62,509     82,074

             營業淨利                           1,994    6,523     15,715     20,373    25,163     31,126    40,601     54,539     73,307    98,572     132,581

             所得稅準備金                          292      699       1,729      2,241     2,768     3,424      4,466      5,999      8,064    10,843     14,584

             稅後淨利                            862     5,644     13,986     18,132    22,395     27,702    36,135     48,539     65,243    87,729     117,997

             營業活動現金流量調整                     5,081    5,853      6,785      7,803     8,973     10,319    11,867     13,647     15,694    18,048     20,755

             營業活動之淨現金流                      5,943    11,497    20,771     25,935    31,368     38,021    48,002     62,187     80,937    105,777  138,753

             資本支出                          (3,157)  (6,482)    (7,454)    (8,572)   (9,858)  (11,337)  (13,038)  (14,993)  (17,242)  (19,829)  (22,803)

             自由現金流                          2,786    5,015     13,317     17,362    21,510     26,684    34,964     47,193     63,695    85,948     115,950




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