Page 3 - CCFA Journal - Ninth Issue

加中金融

编辑寄语 Editor’s Message

节日快乐！即将挥别充满挑战的 2022。回首过去一年，宏观环境跌宕起伏，新冠的破坏性持续改变着全球经济和人民生活。
各国央行的货币政策调整、供应链中断和全球能源市场动荡等快速变化，以及乌克兰战争和新的地缘政治动态进一步恶化了
整体经济环境。雪上加霜，中国还面临着其房地产市场洗盘和经济放缓的一系列其他难题。

本期，四篇文章聚焦 2023 年全球和中国的经济前景。道明证券的 Richard Kelly 关注全球高利率和美联储持续的量化紧缩、通
胀、衰退担忧以及俄罗斯/乌克兰战争将继续影响市场。而在我们筹备此期中，来自中国的专家已经预测到中国将取消大部分
与 Covid 相关的限制。加拿大驻华使馆的丹尼尔·科尔迪克先生在前个月的见面会中分享了他对中国经济的乐观看法，而
GROW 投资集团的洪灏对中国经济和未来市场进行了更详细的展望。

与 2008 年金融危机相比，体系脆弱性对应风险水平更高表现更为复杂。在 2022 年，我们看到了英国养老基金面临破产向政府
寻求援助，瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)崩盘以及 FTX 的破产案例。加拿大金融体系在整个新冠疫情期间表现了极大的韧性。正如
Milos Vukovic 和 Jeremie Zhou 在文章中所讨论的那样，这在很大程度上要归功于完善的风险管理框架和风险管理文化。 Jeff
Huang 和 Xin Liang 展示了加拿大银行如何用压力测试和信贷拨备来应对所面临的挑战。 Eugene Wang 和 Huaxiong Huang 回顾
了结构化信用建模及其在信用风险管理、信用准备金和资本金中的应用。
无论如何，假期是与朋友和家人庆祝的时刻。CCFA 的圣诞晚宴圆满结束，在本期杂志中精彩回顾。悦享悦读，祝大家 2023
年幸福、安康、兴兴向荣!

Happy holidays! 2022, a very challenging year with fluctuating global macroeconomic environments, is almost behind us.
The disruption of the pandemic continued to transform the economy and people’s life around the world. Central bank
monetary policy actions, rapidly changing economic conditions such as supply chain disruptions and global energy market
turmoil, a devastating war in Ukraine and new geopolitical dynamics further intensified the economic challenges. While
China shared all these challenges, it faced additional ones like the housing market and economic slowdown and export
slowdown.

In this issue, we first focus on the economic outlook in 2023 globally and in China via four articles. Globally high interest
rates and continued Fed’s quantitative tightening, inflation, recession fears, and Russian/Ukraine war will continue to drive
the markets, as discussed by Richard Kelly, et.al from TD Securities. When we are preparing this issue, China has lifted most
Covid related restrictions, as forecasted in the articles. Hao Hong from GROW Investment Group presented a detailed
outlook of the Chinese economy and markets. Daniel Koldyk from the Embassy of Canada to China shared with us his
optimistic view on the Chinese economy.
Compared with the 2008 financial crisis, this time the financial system vulnerabilities have become more complex and risks
have become more elevated. In 2022 we saw the bailout of UK pension funds, the meltdown of Credit Suisse, and the default
of FTX. The Canadian financial system has proved resilient throughout the pandemic, largely thanks to a well-established
risk management framework and risk management culture as discussed by Milos Vukovic and Jeremie Zhou from RBC Global
Asset Management. Jeff Huang from Scotia Bank and Xin Liang from Equitable Bank showed how Canadian banks manage
through the challenges via stress testing and credit provisioning. In the quant corner, a review of the structured credit
modeling framework and its applications in credit risk management, credit provisioning, and capital charges are presented
by Eugene Wang and Huaxiong Huang from CynoRisk Analytics.

Holiday season is a time to celebrate with friends and family. CCFA’s Christmas dinner was successfully concluded with
wonderful pictures presented in the issue. Enjoy reading and wish everyone a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2023!

Eugene Wang

王宇青

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE December 2022
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