Page 5 - CCFA Journal - Ninth Issue

加中金融 市场展望 Market Outlook

Portfolio Strategy: A Credit Compass to Navigate the Complexities of 2023

投资组合策略:2023 年复杂性的信用指南针

In our base case scenario of a recession, equity valuations and corporate earnings should adjust downward in 2023. We disagree
with the forward-earnings consensus that implicitly prices a soft-landing. Therefore, we expect equity markets to be under pressure
and IG spreads to widen by 50-75bps to the 200-225bps range in 2023.

This scenario calls for defensive positioning in credit excess-return portfolios. The strategy is less clear for total-return investors.
They will likely face two opposite forces, as the rates outlook calls for adding duration exposure. The positive news is that these
dynamics point to a reversal of negative correlations between credit and long-end rate returns in 2023. Hence, we expect a relatively
better year for total return investors.

在我们经济衰退的基本情景中，2023 年股票估值和企业盈利应该会向下调整。我们不同意关于软着陆已经定价预期收益
这样的认知。因此，我们预计股市将面临压力，IG 息差将扩大 50-75 个基点，到 2023 年达到 200-225 个基点。

这种情况要求在信贷超额回报投资组合中进行防御性配置。对于总回报投资者来说，策略就不那么明确了。他们可能会面
临两股相反的力量，因为利率前景要求增加久期敞口。积极的消息是，这些动态表明，2023 年信贷和长期利率回报率之
间的负相关性将出现逆转。因此，对于总回报投资者来说，我们预计会相对更好。

G10 FX Outlook: Fast Times At DollarMont High G10 外汇展望: 美元在快速上涨

The USD outlook hinges on three themes that have dominated the 2022 narrative and provide the handoff for 2023: global growth,
terminal rate pricing, and the terms of trade shock. While the unrelenting phase of the USD rally is behind us, 2023 will feature a
resilient USD to start the year. In turn, we look for one more push higher, followed by consolidation, and then the reversal.

Early 2023 will feature a handoff of the key drivers of 2022. Global growth bottomed out in Q2, reflecting a tricky winter for Europe
and the scope that China disappoints hopes for a rapid reopening. Meanwhile, the Fed will likely diverge on major central bank
terminal rate pricing en route to 5.5%, underscoring the vulnerabilities to housing and domestic growth across most of the G10.

This backdrop should give way to a slowing US economy, a peak in commodities, and the resulting terms of trade shock, sparking a
growth recovery in Europe in late H1. An acceleration in China through H2 should boost the global growth outlook, easing stagflation
concerns and associated hedges. A focus remains on the macro-dynamics, but the USD's extreme valuation starts to bite.

美元前景取决于三个主题，这三个主题主导了 2022 年的行情，并传递到 2023 年: 全球增长、终端利率定价和贸易条件冲
击。虽然美元高升的阶段已经过去，但 2023 年伊始美元将具有弹性。反过来，我们期待再一次推高，然后是盘整，然后
是反转。

2023 年初将出现 2022 年关键驱动因素的延续。全球经济增长在第二季度触底，反映出欧洲冬季的艰难，以及中国寄希望
迅速重新开放的希望可能失望的程度。与此同时，美联储可能会在主要央行终端利率定价上出现分歧，最终将利率上调至
5.5%，由此 G10 大部分国家住房和国内增长乏力的矛盾凸显。

这一情形应该会让位于美国经济放缓、大宗商品价格见顶以及由此带来贸易冲击，从而推动欧洲在上半年末实现增长复苏。
中国经济在下半年加速增长，应会提振全球增长前景，缓解对滞胀的担忧和相关对冲。焦点仍然是宏观动态，但美元的极
端估值开始产生影响。
Emerging Markets Outlook: Opportunities in the Malaise 新兴市场展望:低迷中的机遇

We expect weaker growth trajectories for most EM economies in 2023. The decline in inflation rates across EM is likely to be slower
than in DM. Many central banks in EM will remain behind the curve. We forecast the Latam hiking cycle to end earlier than in other
EM regions. Policy rates will remain elevated in EMEA, but there's scope to ease by end of 2023. Asian central banks (except China)
will continue to hike.

Near-term pressures on EM FX to persist, but we see some, albeit limited scope for recovery. We are wary of bouts of USD strength.
Some worsening in external metrics (e.g. in EMEA) will increase FX vulnerability. Valuations and positioning suggest many EM local
currency bonds and FX have cheapened significantly, offering better value to EM investors even in the face of weaker growth /
higher rates.

我们预计 2023 年大多数新兴市场经济体的增长轨迹都将走弱。整个新兴市场的通胀率下降速度可能会慢于发达市场。新
兴市场的许多央行仍将落后于曲线。我们预计拉丁美洲的加息周期将比其他新兴市场地区更早结束。EMEA 的政策利率将
保持在高位，但到 2023 年底有下调的空间。亚洲各国央行(中国除外)将继续加息。

新兴市场外汇面临的短期压力将持续存在，但我们认为复苏空间有限。我们对美元的强势保持警惕。一些外部指标(如欧
洲、中东和非洲)的恶化将增加外汇脆弱性。估值和仓位显示，许多新兴市场本币债券和外汇已大幅贬值，即使在增长放
缓/利率上升的情况下，也为新兴市场投资者提供了更好的价值。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE December 2022
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