Page 4 - CCFA Journal - Ninth Issue

市场展望 Market Outlook 加中金融

Global Macro Outlook: A Not-So Fine Balance

全球宏观经济展望: 不那么完美的平衡

Richard Kelly, James Rossiter, Priya Misra, Cristian Maggio,
Mark McCormick, Mitul Kotecha, Bart Melek,

TD Securities

Translated by Emily Gu and Sarah Li

High inflation and labour market tightness increasingly
suggest that a significant downward structural shift in
global capacity has occurred. We expect inflation across
most of G10 to hold above target all through 2023. Central
banks have been caught on the back foot and are now
forced to fight too-high inflation by raising their policy rates
above neutral, at the cost of growth and higher
unemployment. The battle against inflation is far from
done, and could turn ugly very quickly, and we look for a
worse outcome in the US than the current soft-landing
consensus.

We look for G10 central banks to drive real rates into positive territory in 2023, via both hikes in the nominal rate and seeing inflation
ease back from peak levels, holding policy rates at their terminal values through a global recession. Only in 2024 do policy rates
start to return toward neutral.

高通胀和劳动力市场紧张日益表明，全球产能发生了重大的结构性向下转移。我们预计整个 2023 年，G10 大部分国家的
通胀都将高于目标。各国央行处于被动，现在被迫将政策利率上调至中性以上，以经济增长和失业率上升为代价，来对抗
过高的通胀。对抗通胀的斗争远未结束，而且可能很快变得更糟糕，我们预见美国的结果或许比目前人们普遍认为的软着
陆更严峻。

我们预计，G10 央行将在 2023 年通过上调名义利率和通胀从峰值水平回落，将实际利率推高至正水平，在全球衰退期间
将政策利率维持在终端水平。只有到 2024 年，政策利率才会开始回归中性。

Global Rates Outlook: Holding My Breath 全球利率展望:屏住呼吸

The overarching theme in 2023 will be one of central banks being torn between their competing and conflicting growth and inflation
goals. The broad-based nature of inflation suggests that even though it should decline, it could be sticky at high levels. Meanwhile,
the tightening in monetary policy thus far should start to weigh on growth. We expect the Fed to be the first G10 central bank to
ease policy in Q4 2023, followed by others in 2024. We like owning US against global rates and expect global flatteners with the CA
curve outperforming.

A central bank community reluctant to ease rates, low FX reserve accumulation, and mutual fund and bank deposit outflows should
keep term premium elevated through much of 2023. However, signs of weakening growth should bring in some buyers of duration.
Any change in BoJ YCC could have significant spillovers into global rates. We expect the BoJ to shift YCC in Q2 2023 by moving the
band wider by 10bp.

The repricing in asset classes during the current cycle has been unprecedented in magnitude and speed. Despite regulations and
stress tests, the rapid adjustment challenges markets and institutions. Lower liquidity amplifies the reaction. The UK LDI debacle
was an example of failure in risk management, and we remain concerned about other potential market vulnerabilities.

2023 年的大环境将是各国央行在求增长和通胀目标之间左右为难。通货膨胀的广泛性质表明，即使它应该下降，在高水
平时也可能具有粘性。与此同时，迄今收紧的货币政策应该会开始拖累经济增长。我们预计美联储将成为第一个在 2023
年第四季度放松政策的 G10 央行，随后其他央行将在 2024 年放松政策。我们倾向于持有美国国债，并预计全球利率将趋
平，其中美国国债收益率曲线表现优于美国国债收益率曲线。

央行不愿放松利率，外汇储备积累较低，共同基金和银行存款外流，应该会使期限溢价在 2023 年的大部分时间保持高
位。不过，经济增长放缓的迹象应该会吸引一些长期债券买家。日本央行收益率曲线控制的任何变化都可能对全球利率产
生重大溢出效应。我们预计日本央行将在 2023 年第二季度通过将波动区间扩大 10 个基点来改变收益率曲线控制。
本轮周期内资产类别的重新定价在规模和速度上都是前所未有的。尽管有监管和压力测试，但快速调整对市场和机构构成
了挑战。较低的流动性放大了这种效应。英国 LDI 的崩溃是风险管理失败的一个例子，我们仍对其他潜在的市场漏洞感到
担忧。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE December 2022
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