Page 6 - CCFA Journal - Ninth Issue

市场展望 Market Outlook 加中金融

Commodities Outlook: Not as Bad as Advertised
大宗商品前景:不像宣传的那么糟糕

Investors have abandoned the commodity sector since the Federal Reserve started to aggressively tighten monetary policy, which
stoked recession fears, and when it became apparent that China has entered a period of unusually weak economic growth. We
predict that capital flows into the sector and prices will be subdued into 2023, as demand growth for crude oil and industrial metals
remains relatively weak amid increasingly restrictive monetary policy and economic weakness throughout much of the world.

Despite the powerful macro and monetary policy headwinds blowing against energy and base metals, any negative price impact is
likely to be modest by historic standards due to negative supply shocks. Crude oil prices are projected to move higher into 2023,
with base metal prices expected to post only modest declines in the early part of the year, followed by a relatively robust recovery.

Sharply higher real interest rates along the Treasury curve, driven by the Fed's aggressive tilt to a restrictive monetary policy stance
and falling inflation expectations drove gold down from $2,050/oz in March to as low as $1,617/oz in early-November. A continued
sharp increase in US real and nominal rates along the short end of the curve may drive gold toward $1,575/oz in early 2023. The
yellow metal may well start to trend up toward $1,800/oz after Q1, as it becomes clear that the Fed is approaching the end of its
tightening cycle and the market starts to look toward cuts on the horizon.

自从美联储(fed)开始大举收紧货币政策(引发了对经济衰退的担忧)，以及中国明显进入经济增长异常疲弱的时期以来，
投资者已经抛弃了大宗商品领域。我们预计，在全球大部分地区货币政策日益收紧和经济疲软的情况下，原油和工业金属
的需求增长仍相对疲弱，因此，资金流入该行业和价格将持续低迷，直到 2023 年。

尽管能源和贱金属面临强大的宏观和货币政策阻力，但由于供应受到负面冲击，以历史标准衡量，任何对价格的负面影响
都可能是温和的。原油价格预计将在 2023 年继续走高，贱金属价格预计在今年上半年仅会小幅下跌，随后将出现相对强
劲的复苏。
在美联储积极转向限制性货币政策立场和通胀预期下降的推动下，美国国债曲线上的实际利率大幅上升，金价从 3 月份的
2050 美元/盎司跌至 11 月初的 1617 美元/盎司。美国实际利率和名义利率沿曲线短端持续大幅上升，可能会在 2023 年初
推动金价向 1575 美元/盎司上涨。在第一季度之后，黄金很可能开始向 1800 美元/盎司上涨，因为美联储的紧缩周期已经
接近尾声，市场开始期待即将到来的降息。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE December 2022
Page 6 第6页