Page 20 - CCFA Journal - Fourth Issue

CCFA DSS 卓越领军 加中金融

卢海： 是的。我完全同意滨的看法。这是一个非常复杂的问题，我们只从经济的角度来看。我不认为美国或中国会把这作为一种谈判
或武器来对付美国，但你知道这是一种讨价还价。你知道你想用多少取决于政治关系，你用好控制质量然后情况可能会改变，你可能
会牺牲一些经济。

Bruce: 我完全同意你的看法。我觉得如果我不问一些关于比特币的问题，那我就是失职了。我知道这不在我们之前讨论的问题中，但
你知道中国和美国都有相当数量的比特币挖矿，但我们也知道主权政府倾向于保持对本国货币的控制。您对比特币的崛起以及成为世
界储备货币的可能性有何看法?

卢海:我的观点是关于数字货币的。所以基本上，伴随着中国快速发展的信号，将会有更多的监控系统来监控资金的流向，我们称之为
“货币监控”。

Hai Lu: Oh yeah, I fully agree with Bin. And it’s a very complicated issue, only looking at it from the economical perspective. I don’t
think the US or China would use this as a negotiation. While China will unlikely use it as a weapon against the United States, it is a
form of bargaining. How much you want to use depends on bi-lateral political relationship. If you control the quality well, the
situation might change probably at cost of economy.

Bruce: I fully agree with you. I feel like I’d be remiss if I didn’t ask something about Bitcoin. I know Bitcoin wasn’t in the questions
that we talked about, but you know both China and the US have a fair amount of Bitcoin mining going on and we also know that
sovereign governments tend to keep control over their own currencies. Do you have an opinion on the rise of Bitcoin and it
potentially playing a role as a type of reserve currency for the world?

Hai Lu: My opinion was about digital currency in general. So basically, when I see signals that China’s moving very fast, there will be
more monitoring systems to trace where money flows, calling for “monetary monitoring.”

高滨:我想分享两个想法。第一，中国采用 DCEP 即数字货币电子支付，中国在人民币国际化方面有三种方法。每个人都知道，人民币
在 SWIFT 的占比从 1.5%的低点上升到接近 2.5%，2014 - 15 年的历史高点是 2.8%。这是一种度量，另一种是 TCP，这还不足道。第三
个，叫做 CIPS，很多人甚至从来没有听说过，CIPS 是中国的银行支付系统，用于支付人民币，所以它增长得非常快，我们用提供便
利的人民币来解释。

第二关于比特币本身。早在 2017 年。当我相信美元时，我有一个关于比特币价格的理论。当时并没有多少人相信比特币。我的理论基
本上是，比特币的上限是 10 万美元，那里有很多百万比特币。每件 10 万美元，总共是 2 万亿美元。这是美国 GDP 的十分之一。世界
上的地下经济大约有 20 万亿美元。2 万亿美元。大约占地下经济的十分之一。我认为这足够大了。从那时起，美联储的资产负债表翻
了一番，从 3 万亿美元到 7.54 万亿美元。所以我估计比特币的新上限是 20 万美元左右，但最近我有一个不同的理论比特币超越了我们
的货币。这是一种数字艺术，所以如果富人没有比特币收藏，他们会感到羞耻。就像富人喜欢收藏艺术品一样。所以天花板在哪里，
我不知道，可能高不可及上限到天空。这就是我对比特币的看法。
Gao Bin: I’d like to share two thoughts. Number one: China’s adoption of DCEP, or digital currency electronic payment, and China’s
three approaches to RMB internationalization. the share of RMB as of total SWIFT payment went from a low of 1.5% to nearly 2.5%
while the historical peak was at 2.8% back in 2014 and 2015. So that’s one measure. The other one is the TCP(Transmission Control
Protocol), which is not worth to mention. And the third one is called the CIPS, many people have never even heard of. The CIPS is
China’s bank payment system, the payment in RMB, so that has been growing very quickly and we can explain this through the
accessibility of RMB.

Regarding Bitcoin itself, back in 2017, when I was still convinced on dollars, I had a theory about the price of Bitcoin. Not many
people believed in Bitcoin at that time. My theory was basically that the ceiling for Bitcoin was 100,000 dollars. Since there are
millions of Bitcoins, $100,000 per piece makes $2 trillion in total. That is one tenth of the US GDP. The global underground economy
is about 20 trillion US dollars so $2 trillion is about one tenth of the global underground economy. I think that’s big enough. And
since then, the Fed has doubled its balance sheet, right from $3 trillion to $7.54 trillion. So my estimation of the new ceiling of
Bitcoin is now at about $200,000, but recently, I have a different theory that Bitcoin is going beyond our currency. It’s another
human asset. It’s a digital art. So if rich people don’t have any in their collection, they might feel ashamed. It’s just like how rich
people like to collect art. So where the ceiling is, I don’t know, the sky’s the limit. That’s what I think about Bitcoin.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE June 2021
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