Page 17 - CCFA Journal - Fourth Issue

加中金融 CCFA DSS 卓越领军

Bruce: 很高兴请到两位。请两位开始你们的简短开场演示，然后我们再做问答环节。

高滨: 谢谢 CCFA 的邀请。首先，我想用一个很有挑战性的问题开始，中国和美国哪个国家更注重规则?人民币和美元哪一种货币更具
潜在价值?
如果你看看过去几年的事实，你会发现中国已经成功地与全球各国建立了贸易和投资关系。中国已于 2013 年启动 RCEP，并于 2020 年
达成与欧洲和世界贸易的全面投资协定。中国的出口早在 2013 年就超过了美国，从去年开始，中国的进口就超过了美国。有趣的是，
中国的贸易规模在增长的同时，贸易依赖从 65%下降到 35%，与日本大致相同，只略高于美国，这对汇率有影响。
那么下一个问题是，人民币和美元哪个更强?用人民币你可以买制造业产品，用美元你可以得到更好的金融资产。美元和人民币汇率
有波动。第三世界国家将把一部分美元兑换成人民币，特别是购买研发产品，这与中国的政策储备支持有关。有人会顾虑中国的杠杆
问题，但我更愿意从一个开放的全球第二经济体的角度来看待中国。如果你看央行的资产和 GDP。中国的情况要好得多。中国还存在
扩大资产负债表的潜在空间。同样你看看美国的金融资产与 GDP 的比值已经达到了历史最高水平但经济的潜在增长率实际上一直在
下降。
新兴市场增长的同时，它对基础金属的需求确实也在增加，例如，一辆传统汽车使用 20 公斤铜，而电动汽车使用 200 公斤铜。展望未
来，我们认为这一大宗商品将迎来一波热潮。

从这里，我想得出一个结论：具有有吸引力的收益率的债券是两年期国债的实际利率减去通货膨胀率得到的名义利率。最后每个人都
在抱怨中国的股市。这取决于你的观点，考虑到你的投资期限有多长。从长远来看，中国的二级市场管理已经跟上了美国的步伐，但
它极其不稳定。波动性创造了很多机会，你可以在很多市场上得到真正的 alpha 值，这在目前的美国是困难的，因为很多行业都被高
估了。

我先在此打住，接下来大家可以开放讨论中国在货币资产方面的吸引力。

Bruce：I want to thank both of my guests for joining us this evening. Before we get into the questions and answers, we are going
to have two brief presentations by each of our professors.

Gao Bin: Thanks for the invitation. Let me start with a big challenging question: Which is the more rule-based country, China or the
US? Whi ch currency is valued more to reflect its potential, the RMB or the US Dollar?

If you look at the facts in the past few years, China has been successfully engaging with global countries and establishing trader and
investment relationships. China started the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) in 2013 and the Comprehensive
Agreement on Investment (CAI) with Europe concluded in 2020. China’s imports and exports overtook those of the US back in 2013
and 2020, respectively. Interestingly, China’s trade deal size increased while the trade dependence had dropped from 65% down to
35%, which is about the same level as Japan, and only marginally higher than the US, which has an impact on the currency.

So the next question is: Which currency is stronger, the RMB or the US Dollar? With RMB, you could buy manufactured goods and
with USD, you could get better financial assets. The US dollar and the RMB exchange rate fluctuates. People in the developing
countries will convert some of their US dollars into RMB, especially to buy R&D products at the moment because of its solid support
with China’s policy reserve. China’s leverage may become a concern, but I would rather look at China from the perspective of
openness of the 2nd largest economy. If you look at the central bank’s assets versus GDP, China is in a much better position. There
is potential room for China to expand its balance sheet.

The ratio of US financial assets over GDP has reached an all-time high, but the potential growth of the economy has actually been
dropping constantly.

The speculative demand of commodities between the US dollar and physical commodities has increased. As the emerging market
grows, there’s a real incremental demand for base metals. For example, a traditional car uses 20 kilos of copper, whereas an EV
uses 200 kilos of copper. Going forward, we think that we will see a big wave in demand for the commodity.

From here, we arrive at the conclusion that bonds with attractive yields have nominal rates, which is the real rate in a two-year
treasury bond minus the inflation rate. And then everybody complains about China’s stock market. Well, it really depends on the
perspective (e.g., investment horizon) . In the long run, China’s secondary market management will keep up with that of the US, but
it’s extremely volatile. Volatility creates opportunities and there are many markets where you can actually get a real alpha. Seeking
for alpha is difficult at the moment in the US as a lot of sectors had been overvalued.

I will stop here to start an open discussion about how China is very attractive in terms of monetary assets.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE June 2021
Page 17 第17页