Page 21 - CCFA Journal - Fourth Issue

加中金融 CCFA DSS 卓越领军

Bruce: 这是一个非常有趣的观点，我以前没有考虑过，但现在我觉得很有道理。好吧，你知道，今天这是一个地缘政治讨论，我们知
道中国官员和美国官员正在阿拉斯加会面。所以我们确实想谈谈国际协议。我想问一两个关于 RCEP 的问题。澳大利亚前总理马尔科
姆·特朗布尔曾说 RCEP 是一个没什么野心的协议。所以问题是它有多大的野心? 哪些国家将是 RCEP 的商业受益者和输家?

高滨: 我们认为这是北美开始有自己独立的贸易协议。欧洲有欧盟。因此，RCEP 实际上对亚太地区来说是一件好事，未来的国家走到
一起，他们可以把资本和目标捆绑在一起，然后更加自由地前进。RCEP 涵盖了数字经济，也涵盖了大量中小企业。它有统一规则和
相互的受益者。就像卢教授前面提到的，经济和收入、服务和制造业资源消耗在多个维度阶段的发展水平和互补特征。所有这些都让
我想到了第二个问题: 谁是赢家，谁是输家。如果各国的发展水平如此不同，我认为这对每个人都是积极的双赢。

RCEP 不仅仅是赞美。它涵盖了数字经济和许多中小企业。如果这项协议是针对发展水平如此不同的国家，那么每个国家都是赢家。
中国将成为最大的赢家，将增加 850 亿美元的经济，日本将增加 480 亿美元，韩国将增加 230 亿美元。这三个国家受益最大。国家分得
的蛋糕变小了，但每个人都在增加。从日本 GDP 增长的百分比来看，韩国将获得最大的收益，约为 1%。我从投资的角度来看待这个
问题，感觉是一个被低估的市场。他们可能高估了日本。问题是化石燃料时代已经结束。有趣的是，电动汽车是未来 10 年或 20 年的
下一个最大发展。对于印尼来说，我认为它的价值被低估了，因为它盛产镍，印尼是镍储量最大的国家。但中国的技术正在发生变化，
那里的一些制造商能够从镍铁组合中提纯镍，这些镍铁组合可以充分用于电池。如果这项技术在几年内得到改进并取得某种突破，印
尼、日本和韩国也将受益。澳大利亚必须找到自己作为亚太伙伴的位置。印度，没有基础设施恐怕什么都做不了。这是一个很大的国
家。

因此，随着中国经济的复苏，人们在家里呆了很长一段时间，而现在假期即将到来，这创造了对服务的需求，或者说主要是国内服务
的需求。我认为这就是为什么这对我们的邻国经济有好处，我认为这对每个人都有好处。因此，中国的增长对周边经济体有利。
Bruce :谢谢，非常全面。海，关于讨论贸易协定。我想你之前提到过这个在你的一些关于贸易的评论中，我们在亚洲和北美越来越本
地化，所以我们想谈谈在加拿大的机会。

Bruce: That’s a really interesting point that I hadn’t really considered, but it makes perfect sense to me now. Okay, so this is a
geopolitical discussion, and we know that Chinese and American officials are meeting in Alaska, so we do want to talk a little bit
about international trade agreements. I wanted to ask a question or two about the RCEP. The former Australian Prime Minister
Malcolm Trumbull said of the RCEP that it was a low ambition deal. So the question is: How ambitious is it? Which countries would
be the business benefactors and losers in the RCEP?
Gao Bin: We see it as being little different than North American and EU having their own isolated trade agreements. So, the RCEP is
actually a great thing for the Asia-Pacific region because as countries come together in the future, they can combine their capital
towards a common goal with more freedom. The RCEP covers digital economies including a lot of SMEs. It has a single rulebook and
mutual beneficiaries. Just as Professor Lu mentioned earlier about the development level and complementary characteristics of the
economy and income as well as service, manufacturing, and resource consumption in multiple dimensions. All of this led me to the
second question: Who are the winners and losers? If the deal is successful for countries with such a diverse level of development, I
think it’s totally a win-win for everybody.

The RCEP is more than just compliments. It covers the digital economy including many SMEs. If the deal is successful for countries
with such a diverse level of development, every country is the winner. China will be the biggest winner, boosting its economy by
$85 billion, Japan by $48 billion, and Korea by $23 billion. These three countries will benefit the most. While each country gets a
smaller piece of the pie, everybody wins. RCEP will benefit GDP growth in Japan and Korea for about 1%. From an investment
perspective, my feeling is that the market is undervalued and investors probably overestimated Japan. If you look at Japan, there
should only be strong industries right now. The fossil fuel era is over. What’s interesting is that EVs are the next biggest development
in the next 10 to 20 years. And for Indonesia, I think the country’s potential is undervalued because of its nickel. Indonesia is the
country with the biggest nickel reserves, but technology is changing in China; some manufacturers there can purify nickel from
nickel-iron alloys, which can be used for batteries. If that technology improves and gets some kind of breakthrough in a few years,
Indonesia, Japan and Korea will benefit as well. Australia has to find its own position as an Asia-Pacific partner. Without
infrastructure in India, you can’t do much. It’s a very large country.

So, as China’s economy recovers, people have been stuck inside for a long, long time and the holidays are coming, which creates a
demand for services, or at least services that are mostly domestic. China’s growth is beneficial for the surrounding economies.

Bruce: Thank you, that’s very comprehensive. Speaking of trade agreements, Hai, I think you touched on this earlier with some of
your comments about trading. We’re increasingly localized for Asia and North America so we wanted to talk about opportunities in
Canada.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE June 2021
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