Page 19 - CCFA Journal - Fourth Issue
P. 19
加中金融 CCFA DSS 卓越领军
OPEN PANEL DISCUSSION
Bruce: 现在进行开放问答环节。我想从一个观察开始听取你们双方的看法,中国是美国最大的债权人之一, 而我们都知道,中国政府和拜
登政府在阿拉斯加会晤中互相博弈,那么你们怎么看……
高滨: 问题是中国是否还需要一个庞大的外汇储备。这可能是一种谈判策略,但最终,中国的外汇储备水平将取决于中国下一步想要
什么。目前 3 万亿美元的外汇储备足以支付进口,记住中国也是一个净出口国。从这个角度来看,中国需要的外汇储备甚至比实际情
况还要少。
未来多元储备体系将取代单一货币美元储备。这让我想起了 2008 年和 2009 年,当美元陷入困境时,整个世界都陷入了困境。一个稳
健的全球货币体系需要世界两大经济体的支持。人民币我认为这迟早会成为储备货币, 我之前提到的, 在第三世界国家需求不同可能需
要更多人民币稳定对中国产品的购买力——从一个国家,是世界上最大的经济和制造业。随着时间的推移,越来越多的其他国家将逐渐
放弃美元作为唯一的储备货币。中国将减少美国的信用,因为这曾经是一种虚荣债务。n panel discussion
Bruce: I would really love to get both of your opinions. I want to start with the fact that China is one of the biggest creditors of the
United States and as we all know, the Chinese government and the Biden administration are gambling in Alaska right now, so what
do you think of it?
Gao Bin: The question is whether China will need a big FX reserve anymore. That could be a negotiation tactic, but ultimately, the
level of reserves in China will be determined by what China wants next. The current $3 trillion FX reserve is enough to cover imports
and we need to remember that China is also a net exporter. From that perspective, China requires even less reserves than it holds
today.
Going forward, a multiple reserve system would replace single currency USD reserves. It reminds me of when the USD got into
trouble in 2008 and 2009, the global economy was in distress. A robust global currency system needs a backup among the top two
economies in the world. The RMB, sooner or later, I think, will become one of the reserve currencies. As I mentioned earlier,
requirements differ in the developing countries who may need more RMB to stabilize their purchasing power for products from
China - the biggest manufacturing economy in the world. Over the years, many other countries are expected to gradually move
away from the US dollar as the only reserve currency. China will be less in US credit since that used to be a vanity debt.
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE June 2021
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