Page 15 - CCFA Journal - Fourth Issue

加中金融 Markets 市场论坛

“随着第二波、第三波疫情的袭来，我们未来应重点关注哪些行业及风险点？”阿尔特曼博士认为旅游业企业的实际业绩水平不足以
支撑他们从债务市场持续获得融资，如果下一轮疫情触发相关的企业倒闭，整个行业可能难以彻底复苏。

此外，阿尔特曼博士认为美国联邦和州立政府最终需依靠提高税收才能继续为公司提供流动性支持；而且美国 10 年期国债收益率已
较先前涨了近 100 点至 1.65%，金融市场对通胀的担忧开始升温。

霍奇基斯博士基于历史数据发现，陷入财务困境的公司中，采取庭外重组和申请破产的比例通常各占 50%。然而经历了此次疫情后，
针对陷入财务困境的公司所采取的措施变得更加难以预测，因为我们不确定究竟公司流动性的紧缺是否暂时性的 —— 如果企业很有
可能在疫情后恢复经营状况，那么作为贷款人更愿意对贷款实施延期，而非强迫借款人进入昂贵的破产重组程序。若进一步分析已申
请破产的企业，如何评估这些企业的持续经营价值 vs 清算价值并正确作出清算 vs 重组的决策，也将会是不小的挑战；疫情为此带来
了更大的不确定性。
“With the impending second and third waves of the pandemic, which industries and risk factors should we focus on in the future?”

Dr. Altman believes that the actual performance level of tourism companies is not enough to support them to continue to obtain financing from the
debt market. Therefore, if the next wave of the pandemic triggers the closure of related companies, the entire industry may not be able to fully recover.

In addition, Dr. Altman believes that the US federal and state governments will ultimately need to raise taxes to continue to provide liquidity support
for companies. Moreover, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has risen by nearly 100 points to 1.65% from the previous period and the financial
market’s concerns about inflation have begun to heat up.

Based on historical data, Dr. Hotchkiss found that among companies in financial distress, the proportions of out-of-court restructuring and bankruptcy
filing usually each account for 50%. However, after the pandemic, the measures taken for companies in financial distress have become more
unpredictable because we are not sure if the company’s liquidity shortage is temporary. If the company is likely to resume business after the pandemic,
then lenders are more willing to extend the loan instead of forcing the borrower to begin the expensive bankruptcy restructuring process. If we are to
further analyze the companies that have filed for bankruptcy, assessing the value of these companies’ continuing operations and their liquidation value
vs. making the correct decision on liquidation and then restructuring will also be no small challenge. The pandemic has brought much greater uncertainty
to this area.

阿尔特曼、霍奇基斯和王炜博士介绍了他们共同著作的新书《拯救围困企业》。该书提出的 Z-评分模型是预测企业违约的黄金模型，
屹立行业 50 多年后依然被专业人士广泛应用，对分析中国企业违约具备重大的参考价值。这本书不仅能帮助外部分析师和债权人更
好地了解企业，还能辅助内部管理层做出正确的破产重组决策。庭外重组通常改变的是资本结构，而忽略公司运营结构的根本性调
整。所以该模型的独到之处体现在它能针对公司运营提供早期且客观的预警 —— 推测这家公司离倒闭还有多久以及造成其破产的核
心因素（究竟是销售收入、利润、债务、供应链还是其他指标），并以此作为方针指导管理层扭转困境。

最后，关于对未来的预测，阿尔特曼博士分享了一组数据：2021 年初，市场对高收益债券违约率的预测平均值在 5.2%，然而两个月之
后所有机构的预测平均值降至 4.5%。这些都基于目前对全球主要经济体 GDP 增长的良好预期：中国增长 8%，美国增长 6.5%。但是
究竟当中有多少能真正实现，需要重点关注 2021 年下半年的违约率是否依然呈现下降趋势。霍奇基斯博士分享了几点有趣的发现：首
先，新冠疫情期间，企业筹集的资金依然大量存留在他们的资产负债表上；此外，缺乏债务融资渠道的小型企业股权发行量出现了增
长，这对于低市值资本市场是个利好信号。

Dr. Altman, Dr. Hotchkiss, and Dr. Wei Wang introduced their new co-authored book Corporate Financial Distress, Restructuring, and Bankruptcy
(4th edition). The Z-Score model proposed in the book is a golden model for predicting corporate defaults. It is still widely used by professionals after
more than 50 years in the industry and has great reference value for analyzing Chinese corporate defaults. In addition to helping external analysts and
creditors better understand companies, the book is also capable of assisting internal management with making correct bankruptcy and restructuring
decisions. Out-of-court restructuring usually changes the capital structure and ignores fundamental adjustments to the company’s operating structure.
Therefore, the uniqueness of this model is reflected in its ability to provide early and objective warnings for company operations—predicting how far
this company is from bankruptcy and the core factors causing its bankruptcy (whether sales revenue, profit, debt, supply chain or other indicators)—
and uses its findings as a guideline to assist the company’s management to resolve the distress.
Finally, regarding predictions of the future, Dr. Altman shared a set of data: at the beginning of 2021, the market’s average forecast of high-yield bond
default rates was 5.2%, but two months later, the average forecast of all institutions fell to 4.5%. These statistics are all based on currently favourable
expectations for the GDP growth of the world’s major economies: China grew by 8% and the United States grew by 6.5%. However, in order to evaluate
the accuracy of these predictions, we will need to pay attention to whether the default rate in the second half of 2021 will still show a downward trend.
Dr. Hotchkiss shared some interesting findings: first of all, during the COVID-19 pandemic, a large amount of funds raised by companies still remains
on their balance sheets; additionally, there has been an increase in the issuance of equity in small companies that lack debt financing channels, which is
a good sign for the low market capitalization capital market.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE June 2021
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