Page 13 - CCFA Journal - Fourth Issue

加中金融 Markets 市场论坛

阿尔特曼博士指出以上现象是前所未有的，因为在经济低迷时期（如 2009 年）通常去杠杆更为常见，而此次疫情之下，美联储采取一
切可能的手段保证市场的流动性：不仅降息，还为政府债、购房抵押债和公司债提供次级收购（secondary purchase）；公司被鼓励发
行更多的债券以弥补疫情隔离导致的营收和盈利下降，增加了金融市场的杠杆。这一系列的操作无论是从效率还是力度来看均远超人
们的预期，但同时也可能带来意想不到的后果，例如潜在的道德风险问题，违约风险较高的 BBB 债券在持续高涨的杠杆环境下最终可
能变成“堕落天使（fallen angels）”，即信用评级的下降，因为 2020 年已有约 3500 至 4000 亿美元的债券评级发生下行调整，第二波
有可能会在未来的一段时间内爆发。

Dr. Altman pointed out that the above phenomenon is unprecedented because deleveraging is usually more common during economic downturns (such
as in 2009). However, during the pandemic, the Federal Reserve has taken all possible means to ensure market liquidity by not only cutting interest rates,
but also providing secondary purchases for government, mortgage, and corporate bonds. All the while, companies were encouraged to issue more bonds
to compensate for the decline in revenue and profits caused by the pandemic, increasing the leverage of the financial market. This series of operations
has far surpassed people’s expectations in terms of efficiency and strength, but can also bring unintended consequences at the same time. These might
include issues of potential moral risk and the fact that BBB bonds with higher default risk may eventually become “fallen angels,” i.e. a decline in credit
ratings. As approximately 350 to 400 billion US dollars of bond ratings have been adjusted downwards in 2020, the second wave may break out in the
future.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE June 2021
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