Page 52 - CCFA Journal - Second Issue

加中金融

我记得斯蒂格里茨曾经说过，21 世纪全球最有影响的事情， Stiglitz once said that the most influential thing in the world in
一个是美国的高新科技发展，一个是中国的城市化演变过 the 21st century is the development of high-tech in the United
程——在新兴市场经济体这方面，他看到中国整个现代化 States and urbanization in China. In terms of emerging market
economies, he saw that China’s entire modernization is
实际上是工业化和城市化，再加上中国改革开放已经确定 industrialization/urbanization, coupled with the marketization
的市场化和国际化，当然还要加上高科技化——这个过程 and internationalization, and of course high-tech. The most
中最直观的是可以由城市化代表中国发展的现代化过程。 intuitive aspect of this process is that urbanization can represent
China’s development’s modernization process.
在这里有一个重要判断，就是我们现在处在这样的工业化、
城市化维度上，进展如何？从一些指标来看已经出现拐点 We are now in such an industrialization and urbanization
但我认为不能简单沿用西方学者所用指标量值来判断得出 dimension, how are we progressing? From some economical
中国工业化已到后期。 indicators, there seems we have reached at the inflection point
because reform dividends are paid. But I do not think so..
中国的工业化现在从沿海的高地来看是有后期特征，但是
从沿海的洼地还有广袤的中西部看，也就是中期，有些地 From the coastal highlands, it appears that the industrialization
is now at its late stage. But from the coastal depressions and the
方还只是初期，合在一起应该认为中国现在是从工业化的 vast central and western regions, that is, the mid stage. In some
中期向中后期转变的过程。这样的一个认识实际上跟我们 places, it is only at the early stage. It should be considered that
城镇化（城市化）的指标有互相佐证的关联意义。中国城 China is now mainly in the process of transition from the middle
镇化的指标有两个，一个是过去一直讲的“常住人口的城 to the middle and late stages of industrialization. Such an
镇化率”，现在已经 60.6%，但是这几年从政治局开始特 understanding has mutual corroborative significance with our
别强调另一个没有水分的指标—户籍人口的城镇化率，现 urbanization indicators. There are two indicators for China’s
在只有 44.38%。那么我认为中国真实的城镇化水平，要把 urbanization: the “urbanization rate of the permanent
这两个指标中和一下，而且中和得要更向后者靠一下，没 population” which has now reached to 60.6%. However, in
recent years, the Politburo has particularly emphasized another
有水分的城镇化率是靠得住的，而那个常住人口城镇化率 “urbanization rate of the registered population”, which is now
欠账严重。在北京这种地方特别明显，两千多万常住人口 only 44.38%. Then I think that China’s real urbanization level
里，有相当大一部分，好几百万人，在城里已十几年，二 should be neutralized with these two indicators, and more
十几年，就是拿不到户籍，也就是在基本公共服务这方面 weight should be given to the latter.
实际上是受歧视性的待遇，我们不是不想给他户籍让他成 The urbanization rate of the permanent population is seriously
为市民，是没有这样的发展程度来支撑有效供给。他们在 owed. It is particularly obvious in places like Beijing. Of the
自己和家庭成员的住房、接受教育、医疗保障等等公共服 more than 20 million permanent residents, a considerable part
务方面，就是不能够达到均等化。这是发展的不足，同时， of them, several million people, have been in the city for more
也可以帮助我们判断真实城镇化水平——我觉得中国现在 than ten years, but for more than twenty years, they couldn’t get
也就是 50%多一点，在纳瑟姆曲线上来说，就大概在高速 the household registration. They can not achieve equalization in
发展期的中间位置，或者中间位置稍稍靠右一点，后面还 terms of public services such as housing, education, and
有相当可观的空间。这样一个认识，可以佐证前面关于工 medical security for themselves and their family members. This
业化的判断，因为国际经验表明要是城镇化真正发展到比 is clearly an issue in the development. At the same time, it can
help us to judge the real level of urbanization. I think China is
较高的水平，工业化一般也就是后期了。工业化后期跟城 now at a bit more than 50%. The Nassim curve is probably in
镇化完成高速发展阶段，大致是要对应的，然而中国还没 the middle of the rapid development period or a little bit to the
完全实现。这同时也就又佐证着中央的一个基本判断：我 right in the middle, and there is still considerable space behind.
们的国际地位，是世界上最大的发展中经济体，这个国际 This also corroborates a basic judgment and the policies of the
地位没有变。然而，这也就意味着我们后面还有相当可观 central government：Our international status is the world' 's
的长期发展过程中所谓的成长性、韧性、回旋余地、潜力 largest developing economy, and this has not been changed. It
空间，“中国经济长期向好的基本趋势没有变”，首先是 also means that we still have considerable growth, resilience,
这个客观条件支撑的。我们的成长性还相当可观，从这个 room for maneuver and potential space in the long-term
角度来说当然也是任重道远。 development process ahead of us. “The basic trend of China's
long-term economic growth remains unchanged.”

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE DECEMBER 2020
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