Page 53 - CCFA Journal - Second Issue

加中金融

现在看一些具体指标，比如说已经有了城镇人均 35 平米 Let’s look at some specific indicators. For example, there are
的住房，但是它伴随的结构问题是非常突出的，中国实际 already 35 square meters of housing per capita in cities and
生活中，中央所说的矛盾主要方面是在结构方面，这也在 towns, but it comes with serious problems. The main problem
mentioned by the central government is of the structural aspect,
房地产和城镇化过程中得到很明显的体现：实际生活中有 which is also clearly reflected in the real estate and urbanization:
大量社会成员手上持有多套房，而又有大量社会成员苦于 in fact, many people hold multiple houses, and many suffer
不能解决自己意愿中的首套住房问题。结构上的这种问题， from the inability to solve their first housing problem. This
也体现在中心区域建设和演变过程中：只看平均指标。一 problem is also reflected in the construction and evolution of
般的指标，似乎发展得还是比较令人满意的，但是在整体 the central area. The general index seems to have developed
结构方面，在整个中心区还要不断扩大这个布局过程中， quite satisfactorily. But many structural contradictions related
许多与“城市化”相关的结构性矛盾也在积累。如果从现 to “urbanization” are also accumulating in the process of the
在往未来看，还会有与从改革开放到现在 40 年至少数量 layout of the entire central area that will continue to expand. In
相当的要转到城镇成为市民的农村人口，而且要使他们尽 the future, there will be at least the same number of rural people
transferred to cities as in the past 40 years since the reform.
可能便捷地成为市民，也就是说，三亿多到四亿的人，在 More than 300 million to 400 million people will become city
未来的几十年里要成为市民，这个过程当然是我们的引擎 residents in the next few decades. This process is, of course, the
和动力源，是我们内循环的一个客观的支撑条件，同时也 engine and power source of economy, an objective supporting
是对我们处理高质量发展问题的挑战。房地产业和城市化 condition for the internal circulation, and it is also a challenge
中，对于很多以结构问题为突出矛盾体现的挑战性问题怎 for us to deal with high-quality development issues. In the real
么处理好，当然就关系到中国现代化的命运。这是我对于 estate industry and urbanization, how to deal with many of the
第一层次的基本看法，而且光看一般的指标、平均的指标， challenging problems embodied by structural problems as
不利于我们更深入地探讨这种问题。 prominent contradictions is of course related to the fate of
China's modernization.
我注意到一个说法，“人口向城市群集聚的拐点日益明 I noticed a saying, “The turning point of population clustering
显”，实际上也就是在衔接我说的未来还有三四亿人要进 in cities is becoming increasingly obvious”. In fact, it is
城的过程，这个过程在展开的时间跨度上，一直要覆盖我 consistent with what I said that there are still three to four
们“新的两步走”，从 2035 年基本建成现代化，要一直 hundred millions of people going to the city in the future. It
对接到 2049-2050 年建成现代化强国。 matches the “new two steps”: China will reach modernization
by 2035, become a modern and strong one by 2049-2050.
在整个中国，解决真正实现伟大民族复兴的过程中，这个
城市化和相关的整体结构优化问题在不断地挑战我们，需 The problems of urbanization and related structural
要得到好的答案，就对接到第二个咱们要讨论的问题—— optimization in the process of realizing the great national
rejuvenation is constantly challenging us. The second question
城市化里面发生的问题，主要的阻力或者主要的政策抓手 we want to discuss is linked to how to get a better solution.
是什么？我认为房地产是最典型的代表。讨论了这么多年 What are the main obstacles or main policy challenges in the
的健康长效机制，迟迟不能形成，利益固化的藩篱与种种 urbanization? I think the most representative one is the real
难度甚高的改革任务，纠结在一起。客观上的难度和我们 estate. The long-term health mechanism has been discussed for
主观上“啃硬骨头”不得力，综合造成在中央早已经指出 so many years without solution. The barriers of solidified
的房地产真正形成健康长效机制需要有基础性制度建设这 interests are entangled with various difficult reform tasks. The
方面，迟迟不能得到实质性的进展。从这一轮看得出来， complexity of the issue and lack of determination to solve the
problem have made it very slow to make substantial progresses
我们某些地方现在又在压力之下——包括民众的抱怨、上 in building a foundation system for a healthy and long-term real
面管理部门的约谈、指标上看起来有过热问题的指责等等 estate mechanism, as pointed out by the central government.
这些压力之下，于治标的方式上重复前些年的老路，以为
通过行政性的治标的办法，就能够基本维持政绩，就能够 Many issues have surfaced in many places. How to form an
交代过去，这还是在积累矛盾。现在从深圳、南京、杭州 effective supply for the health of the entire system? Not many
have studied systematic solution in the process of institutional
等地压制房地产热度的具体场景观察来说，哪里是在打击 reforms that should be promoted. This supporting reform, from
炒房？这种中心城市哪里还有什么像样的炒房？打击的几 the land system to the housing system, to the investment and
乎都是刚需和改善型需求，把原来人家两年的社保条件一 financing system, to the taxation system, has no substantial
下提高到五年，交个人所得税、交社保从两年到五年，你 progress. Now is a huge challenge facing us that directly hinders
打击的是人家的刚需！又比如离婚手续办完了三年之后才 the construction of basic systems and long-term mechanisms. I
能有可认定的购买住房资格，人家假离婚充其量是买一套 think this aspect is worthy of our in-depth discussion, and some
改善性住房，你打击的也就是改善性住房，哪里打击的是 constructive suggestions should be put forward.
炒房呢？而如何形成有效供给——整个这个体系的健康化，
现在在应推进的制度改革过程中仍很少有人去正面做系统
性的考虑，这种配套改革，从土地制度、到住房制度、到
投融资制度、到税收制度的联动配套改革，无实质性进展，
现在就是在我们面前直接阻碍基础性制度建设和长效机制
的一个巨大的挑战。我觉得这个方面值得我们更深入地探
讨，应提出一些建设性的意见建议。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE DECEMBER 2020
Page 53 第53页