Page 11 - CCFA Journal - Fifth Issue

市场观察 Market Analysis
美债利率上行会否成为“灰犀牛”A 股走出独立行情的可
能性更大
由于短期内供需缺口尚未缩小，推动 7 月份 PPI 再度上行
至 9.0%，后续环比下行仍是大概率事件。CPI 环比和核心
CPI 环比上涨超出预期，需求端对 CPI 拖累的反转迹象值
得警惕。目前通胀压力主要来自供给侧，货币政策很难
有效解决，从政策态度来看，目前不认为有长期全面通
胀的风险，但通胀持续的时间如果比想象要更长，也会
对货币政策形成掣肘。
2 季度货币政策执行报告《专栏 1：正确认识货币与通胀
的关系》中，央行对通胀的判断是：2008 年国际金融危
机后没有出现通胀，但 2020 年疫情后出现通胀。两个时
期内不同通胀格局形成的原因在于央行扩表、投放基础
货币有没有引发广义货币的大幅增长。疫情之后主要发
达经济体实施了极度宽松的货币政策+大规模财政刺激，
央行主导基础货币大幅增长和财政主导的广义货币供给
增长促成了通胀上涨。“全球供需错配仍然存在，通胀
上升会否持续尚待观察”。所以央行特别提到“坚持央
行和财政两个‘钱袋子’定位”，结合前文央行对疫情
后海外国家财政赤字货币化导致的通胀上涨的分析，在
市场普遍预期下半年大概率政府债券发行提速的背景下，
央行再次强调货币和财政“两个钱袋分家”。向社会传
达了要充分认识“财政货币化”的弊端。
专栏 2 进一步明确，“货币政策预期管理的有效实施，根
本在于央行的‘言行一致’”。专栏 4 中提到我国利率总
体处于合理水平，目前在发展中国家和新兴经济体中相
对较低。专栏 5 指出，人民币汇率有升有贬，双向波动，
汇率弹性不断增强，为自主实施正常货币政策创造了条
件。23 日易纲主持召开金融机构货币信贷形势分析座谈
会，强调要继续做好跨周期设计，衔接好今年下半年和
明年上半年信贷工作，加大信贷对实体经济特别是中小
微企业的支持力度，增强信贷总量增长的稳定性，保持
货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经济增速基本匹
配。朱雀固收组判断，在此政策语境下，货币政策难以
收紧，对债市流动性创造了友好的环境。对股市来说，
政策从之前的紧财政+紧信用转为稳财政+稳信用，经济
没有失速风险，政策稳增长、货币相对宽松，总体环境
对市场信心有一定支持。
美 7 月 CPI 符合预期，PPI 继续超预期，达历史绝对高位，
核心 PPI 同样强劲。在德尔塔病毒蔓延的背景下，全球产
业链、供应链再度受到冲击，如汽车芯片短缺导致汽车
价格上涨，原材料价格上涨、劳动力短缺等加大企业生
产成本，进一步加大了通胀压力。7 月美联储在会议中首
次正式讨论 Taper，大多数成员认为在 2021 年 Taper“可
能是适宜的”。
美债利率上行会否成为“灰犀牛”？是市场关注的焦点。
霍华德撰文批评，在 2008 年全球金融危机之后，美联储
的升息之路走得很艰难，而且每一次升息都会引来众怒。
而在 2019 年初，利率又开始转而下行。但这一次，在经
济如此强劲复苏的情况下，我不想再看到升息的机会被
白白错失。美联储要考虑的是怎样做对经济最有利，而
不是怎样让投资者更容易赚钱。关于如果美债利率上行，
是否会带动国内利率上行？是否会导致国内股市调整？
中金公司以宏观传导机制、资金传导机制、情绪传导机
制为主线分析，显示如果美债利率开始上行，国内利率
仍可能保持下行趋势；国内股市或有扰动，但净影响相
对有限，A 股市场走出独立行情的可能性更大。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE
加中金融
US rate rally vs China A-share independence
China’s July PPI rose +9% YoY and +0.2% MoM on continued supply-
demand imbalance. We’ll likely see sequential numbers coming off,
though it’s worth monitoring the CPI and core CPI with both
exceeding expectations on sequential basis. The current inflationary
pressure is mostly from the demand side, which makes it hard for
monetary policy to control. From policy perspective, while we may
not see sustained inflationary pressure, it may last longer than we
initially expected.
In the PBOC Q2 Monetary Policy Implementation report, it
highlighted there was no inflation after the 2008 financial crisis but
there is inflation after the 2020 pandemic. The key difference is
whether there was increase in broader money supply. After the
pandemic, most advanced economies engaged in extremely loose
monetary policy and massive fiscal stimulus, which increased
inflationary pressure. With market expecting accelerated
government debt issuance in the second half of 2021, PBOC
emphasized the concept of “two wallets of central bank and fiscal
policy”, and the shortcomings of monetizing fiscal debt.
PBOC’s report further highlighted “effective implementation of
monetary policy expectation management is based on the central
bank’s ‘does what it says.’” China’s interest rate is at reasonable
levels and relatively low among the emerging or developing markets.
Rosefinch’s fixed income team expects bond market liquidity to
remain friendly as monetary policy is unlikely to tighten. As for the
equity market, the current emphasis on steady fiscal policy + steady
credit creation, relative loose monetary conditions bodes well in
support of market confidence.
US July CPI rose 0.5% mom as expected, though PPI continued to rise
to record high of +7.8% YoY. As Delta-variant rages across the globe,
there’s continued price pressure on global supply chain and industry
chain, such as lack of car semi-conductor chips, increase in raw
material, decline in labor supply. Fed formally discussed Taper for the
first time in July.
So will Fed’s hike become the next “Grey Rhino”? Oaktree Capital
founder Howard Marks said: after 2008 Global Financial Crisis, every
time Fed hiked it caused public anger. In 2019, rates started going
lower and I think Fed missed their chance. But this time, with such
strong economic recovery, I don’t want to miss the opportunity to
hike rates. Fed needs to consider how to be most beneficial for the
economy, not how to let investors make money. If US hike rates, will
that lead to China rate hike? Will it lead to domestic stock market
correction? CICC recently did a research where they looked at macro,
capital, and sentiment transmission mechanisms to show that even
if US rates start to rally, China domestic rates can still maintain
downward trend. Domestic stock market may fluctuate, but net
result will be limited. It’s probably that A-share will follow its own
independent path.
October 2021
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