Page 8 - CCFA Journal - Fifth Issue

加中金融
九月观察：行生于己、名生于人
Embracing 3060 for Tomorrow’s Stars
聚焦 3060 多重赛道 期待明日之星，拥抱珠穆朗玛
7 月美联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）首次在会议中正式
讨论了资产购买缩减（Taper），认为经济朝着充分就业
和物价稳定取得进展。避险情绪主导下全球资产共振，
市场风险偏好降低，开始将未来流动性收紧纳入定价。
长端带领整条收益率曲线快速下行，美股三大指数高位
震荡，美元指数反弹至年内新高，大宗商品呈现出下跌
趋势。
面对德尔塔冲击，国内疫情控制良好，“人类将在很长的
时间内不得不与病毒共存”已渐成共识。中美经济修复周
期错位，经济向高质量增长转型中整体表现平稳。
中美利率相关性从 13 年后走弱，疫情带来的货币政策和
经济周期的错位，导致中美利率相关性进一步下降。当
前中美利差维持高位，国内货币政策和财政政策也都有
调控的空间，央行行长易纲近日强调，要继续做好跨周
期设计，保持货币供应量和社会融资规模增速同名义经
济增速基本匹配。“双减”等政策冲击引发的部分海外资金
分期、持续撤离，本身也是对 Taper 的缓释和预演，会降
低后续一次性冲击压力。市场对 Taper 退出预期不断上升
的过程，中长期视角应该也是布局各个领域核心资产的
机遇。
中国向全世界做出 3060 目标，涉及气变、经济、政治、
文化、社会各个方面，影响日益深远：全球变暖已从科
学共识达成政治共识，各国政府积极采取应对措施；“双
碳”目标实现过程，也是制造业替代全球资源业的进程，
有望解决我们的能源安全问题，也有助于推进人民币国
际化，维护金融安全，中长期对冲老龄化和消费下降，
不仅在体量上部分替代基建、地产，更推动着经济转型
升级、高质量发展。从今年全球气候极端变化看，巴黎
协定的争取目标还有继续优化调整的可能。
站在投资者角度，3060 则是一个确定性高、时间跨度长、
覆盖领域广的巨大多重赛道，既有新赛道，也有传统赛
道升级，还有核心公司、地区格局提升等等，机会层出
不穷、目不暇给！我们始终强调聚焦和卡位，从未来行
业趋势判断和自身长期能力建设角度，不仅聚焦布局在
3060 领域，其他现代农业、生物药、军工、消费电子、
物流、金融科技、产业场景主导的互联网等能力范围中，
与 3060 的结合增长点也不断涌现。我们坚持以产业逻辑
配置、证券投资践行，期待和助推小树长成大树、或者
大树建成生态。同时我们深知，“金钱是所有商品中差别
最小的。风险投资家做的生意是把钱卖给创业者，因此
就需要增加价值，使其与众不同（帕金斯）”，我们的综
合能力不仅决定着客户资产能否增值，也意味着我们内
涵日益增长的本领，会给我们管理的资金带来溢价。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE
Page 8 第8页
市场观察 Market Analysis
朱雀基金
Rosefinch Research
Focusing on 3060, expecting future stars, and
embracing huge opportunities
In July FOMC officially discussed Taper for the first time, recognizing
the economy is moving steadily towards full employment and price
stability. In anticipation of future liquidity withdraw, global market
risk appetite decreased with increased volatility. The long-end of the
yield curve dropped; major US indices were choppy at high levels;
USD index rebounded to new 2021 high; commodities showing
downtrend.
China has maintained tight control over the Delta-variant risk with
success so far. The idea that we’ll have to co-exist with Covid is
gaining momentum.
With China and US recovery cycles in different phases, we see steady
development towards higher quality economy ahead. China and US
rates correlation has continued to decrease. China also has
maneuvering room in its monetary and fiscal policies. Recently
People’s Bank of China Governor Gang Yi has highlighted the need
for “cross-cycle management” to ensure monetary supply and credit
creation is roughly in line with economic growth. The recent policy
shifts like “double reduction” in education sector did cause some
oversea investments to withdraw. This in fact lets off some future
sell-off pressure and released some pressure from one-off Taper
related risk. As market increase their Taper exit expectations, the
long-term view should be on how to position our core assets.
China’s commitment to “3060” - Carbon-peak by 2030 and Carbon-
neutral by 2060 - affects many aspects such as climate, economy,
politics, culture, society, with long-lasting effects. Global warming
has moved from scientific consensus to political agreement, with
most governments now actively implementing policies. The process
of achieving the 3060 goals is equivalent to the process to replace
carbon-energy sector with manufacturing sector. It can improve
China’s energy safety, promote RMB’s globalization, offset older
demographics and consumption slowdown, replace part of
infrastructure or real estate activities, and encourage economic
transitions towards higher quality developments. Based on the
erratic weather patterns this year, there may be further adjustments
to the Paris climate agreement.
From investor’s perspective, the 3060 theme has high certainty, long
time horizon, multiple sectors across both new emerging industries
and upgraded old industries. On top of these there are other
opportunities like core companies or regional upgrades. The
possibilities are endless! At Rosefinch, we focus on assessing future
industry growth trends and increasing our long-term research
capabilities. In addition to directly 3060-related sectors, there are
other sectors with some overlaps like modern farming,
biopharmaceutical, defense, consumer electronics, logistics, fintech,
internet, etc. We’ll continue our industrial-chain research and
disciplined security investment to support the growth of the small
seedlings to large trees and then to entire ecosystem. By continually
adding value and improving our capabilities, we will increase our
clients’ return over the long term.
October 2021