Page 9 - CCFA Journal - Fifth Issue

市场观察 Market Analysis
“免疫落差”与“开放落差”
经济是技术的表达，并随之进化
全球 Delta 病毒疫情加剧，传播速度快，英国和以色列虽
然都达到 70%左右的高接种率，但新增确诊不断增加，美
国单日新增病例破 20 万。据悉印度也已完全放开管制，
越南模仿中国似乎难以为继。虽然重症和死亡率不高，
但全球对疫情及疫苗有效性的担忧升温。英美真正开始
站在了“疫情结束的开头”，未来几个月他们疫情的动
态将可能影响全球的政策走向。国内严格管控下疫情开
始出现拐点，南京等地开始确诊清零。世界如何与病毒
共存，各个国家都在作出自己的回答。关于疫情“严控
论”与“共存论”进行着激烈讨论。
目前来看，上海郊区已建设约 1 万间隔离酒店，航空公司
股价在二次探底后也开始企稳。上海市委书记李强调研
上海市传染病与生物安全应急响应重点实验室，要求加
快科研攻坚突破，有力支撑疫情防控，张文宏指出，目
前国际的抗疫形势依然非常严峻，中国仍然面临巨大的
疫情挑战。但是我们必须有着坚定的信念，我们国家采
取的抗疫策略是目前最适合我们自己的策略。
受异常天气、疫情反复、地产投资受限、就业承压和消
费恢复偏慢等因素影响，7 月经济数据总体显著弱于市场
预期。后续阶段的经济走势，整体来看在排除阶段性因
素影响的情况下，呈现出小幅走弱的概率相对较高，但
出现失速下行的概率相对也有限，过度悲观没有必要，
财政政策也具有较为充足的发力空间。
综合国内外疫情变化和疫苗接种进展，国内的政策调整
演绎，将是未来一段时间宏观走向和预期的重大变量，
进一步会对大类资产和不同行业带来较大影响。长期视
角来看，“复杂经济学”认为经济是技术的一种表达，
并随这些技术的进化而进化。与 08 年以后政策主要通过
信用扩张来调节，宏观经济表现为地产基建周期不同，
目前市场信心更多还是聚焦在高质量发展方面，政策也
保持货币、信用与增长的基本匹配，通过支持制造业发
展等对冲房地产的下行压力。
产业政策转型演变
中国有望成为全球供应链枢纽
8 月 15 日印度独立日，莫迪公布了 25 年内实现能源独立
的目标，作为世界第三大能源消费国和石油进口国，计
划到 2030 年将可再生能源发电能力扩大近 5 倍，以实现
其碳中和目标。我国作为世界第一大能源生产国和消费
国，如期实现碳达峰、碳中和目标更是一场硬仗。
8 月 16 日国家能源局章建华局长在人民日报发表《服务
保障碳达峰碳中和目标如期实现》文章称，我国距离碳
达峰还有不到 10 年时间，“十四五”时期是关键期、窗
口期。提出应加快实施可再生能源替代行动，具体措施
包括加强绿色低碳技术创新应用，积极发展安全高效储
能技术，扎实推动氢能技术发展和规模化应用。19 日第
五届中国-阿拉伯国家博览会在宁夏银川举行。隆基股份
董事长钟宝申发表《光伏肩负起碳中和的使命与荣耀》
的主题演讲，表示中国光伏将始终以科技引领发展，在
世界经济、社会与环境的可持续发展中彰显责任与担当。
随着光伏发电成本的不断降低，光伏产业也更加注重使
用便利及场景化的应用，建筑光伏一体化、光伏制氢等
已成为现实。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE
加中金融
Immunization and travel restriction
The global Delta-variant wave is spreading far and wide. England and
Israel had achieved over 70% vaccination rate and still reported
higher new cases. US daily case is approaching 200k again. While the
severe cases and death rates remain low, there’s increasing concerns
about vaccine effectiveness and need for booster shots. US and
England are now at the beginning of the end of their fight with Covid-
19, with their future decisions likely impacting the global direction.
In China, it had largely controlled the latest Delta-variant break out
with now zero-daily case in hot spots like Nanjing. How we choose to
deal with the coronavirus is a question that each country must
answer, with ongoing debates raging between the “zero-tolerance”
and the “co-existence” camps.
Due to unusual weather patterns, new pandemic waves, real estate
restrictions, employment pressure and slow consumption recovery,
the July economic data points were noticeably weaker than expected.
There will probably be weaker economic growth in coming months,
though unlikely to have dramatic collapse thanks to supportive fiscal
policies. As global pandemic situation evolves and vaccination rates
increases, how domestic policy changes will the key factor in
determining future macro trends or expectations. In Complexity
Economics, economy is another expression of technology and
evolves along with the technological advancements. Unlike the
credit-expansion policy post 2008, now the government is
maintaining basic monetary and credit growth, supporting
manufacturing activities to offset real estate slowdown, and focusing
on higher quality developments.
Becoming core link in the global supply chain
On the day of India independence, August 15th, Modi announced the
goal for energy-independence in 25 years. India is the world’s 3rd
largest energy consumer and oil importer. It wants to increase its
renewable energy capacity five times by 2030 to reach its Carbon-
neutrality target. China is the world’s largest energy producer and
consumer, so to achieve the 3060 goal will be a very demanding
battle indeed.
On Aug 16th, the head of China National Energy Commission Mr
Zhang Jianhua published an article on People’s Daily titled:
“Supporting timely achievement of Carbon-peak and Carbon-neutral
goals”. He said: we have less than 10 years to achieve the Carbon-
peak goal by 2030. The 14th Five-year plan is a key pivotal period.
We should increase substitution of renewable energy, including
more green energy utilization, actively pursue safe and effective
energy-storage technology, push for hydrogen-energy and its
scalable implementation. On Aug 19th, Longi Green Energy
Technology chairman Mr Zhong Baoshen gave a speech on
“Photovoltaic shouldering the duty and glory of carbon-neutrality”
where he said China photovoltaic industry will lead with
technological innovation to support the sustainable growth in global
economical, social, and environmental areas. As the unit cost of
photovoltaic generation drops further, the industry should simplify
the green-energy utilization process such as incorporating solar
panels in the construction sector and streamlining solar energy
conversion into hydrogen. He showed the following chart (See
Figure1), illustrating the four stages to Carbon-neutrality:
1) improving existing framework with flexible resources;
2) expand pumped storage power station;
3) chemical storage to support peak utilization;
4) green hydro energy.
October 2021
Page 9 第9页