Page 62 - FINAL CFA SLIDES JUNE 2019 DAY 2
P. 62

Session Unit 2:
        LOS 8.k: Describe the relative locations of the mean, median,         8. Statistical Concepts and Market Returns
        and mode for a unimodal, non-symmetrical distribution.


        Example (CQ): Suppose CharterQuest draws from the last 8 years of its operations, the following sample observations about the % of CFA-
        registered students who did not sit the final exams (at the first opportunity after enrolling for the course): 12% 13% 54% 56% 25%.
        CFA Institute KPI to maintain accreditation is: Mean ≤ 30% with positive skew permitted; or Mean ≤ 40% with only negative skew permitted!
        Determine if CQ will maintain its accreditation at the next review in December 2018?
        Step 1: Skewness is about whether mean observations are tilted right or left of the distribution; and with what degree of standardised risk
        (variability = standard deviation); so, first thing is to determine the sample mean and the sample standard deviation:    But what
                                                                                                              CQ failing          does CFA
         Why? Check Sk formula                                                                                to meet             Institute
                                                                                                              targets!            really
                                                                                                                                  mean?
                                                                                        2
                                                                       2
                                                                                                            2
         X = (12% + 13% + 54% + 56% + 25%)   = 160% = 32%             S = {(12% – 32%) + …+ (25% – 32%) }/5 = 374%; Hence,
                           5                                        5                  S = 374% 1/2  = 19.34%
         Step 2: Calculate the skewness:
         S k     =              1 *  {(12% – 32%) + … + (25% – 32%) }  =  1 *  (- 8000% – 6859% + … – 343%);    Sk= 0.256  Meaning?
                                                             3
                                          3
                                                                     5                     7233.309%
                          5                          19.34% cubed                                          +, data has a positively skewed
                                 Right skewed:                       Mean      = 32%                       distribution: Meaning?
                                 + sample skewness because the       Median   = 12% 13% 25% 54% 56%
                                 deviations above the mean are       Mode      = None but 12% and 13% are close!
                                 larger on average.                  What do you observe in relation to graph of the left?

                                                                     12%/13% <25% < 32%       Mode <Median < Mean! One interpretation!
       Mode <Median < Mean!
                                                 Or, Lets check deviations ABOVE the mean: (54%-32%) and  (56% - 32%)     =     |  22% and 24%      |
                                                   And, BELOW the mean: (12%-32*), (13%-32%) and  (25%- 32%)               =     | -20, -19, and -7% |
       Between 22% and 24% (RHS –ABOVE MEAN) and -20%, -19% and -7% (LHS –BELOW MEAN),                   And RHS is ABOVE the mean, right?
       we know these will net to zero, but in  ABSOLUTE TERMS RHS > LHS right?
                                       We can infer from this sample skew result about the population of CFA-Level 1 students as follows:
         LETS KILL THE CFA
         JARGON!                       Although 32%, on average do not take their exams immediately following their CQ course, there are far
                                       worse cases above that average than there are below that average!
                                                                 Get is: Did we meet CFA accreditation? What now?
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