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Figure 46 below traces business confidence in these two trade sectors.

Figure 46 Wholesale and Retail BCI, Dec 2013 – Mar 2016

Source: BER

Labour Market
The Quarterly Labour Force Survey reflected a decline in employment and associated
rise in the unemployment rate.

Table 10 below summarises the changes in employment.

Table 10 Changes in Employment, SA

2015 2016 Qtr-to-Qtr Yr-on-Yr Qtr-to-Qtr Yr-on-Yr
change change change change PROVINCIAL OUTLOOK NATIONAL OUTLOOK GLOBAL OUTLOOK GAP HOUSING INVESTOR NARRATIVE SPOT THE OPPORTUNITY PORTFOLIO INSIGHTS KHULISA NEWSLETTER ELECTRIC VEHICLES ENERGY SECURITY LOOKING AT GDP

Q1 Q4 Q1

Thousand Per Cent
SA 15 459 16 018 15 663 –355 204 –2.2 1.3

Source: StatsSA

During the first quarter of 2016, employment decreased by 2.2%, which translated to
355 000 persons losing employment. The main sectors that lost jobs were trade (119 000),
manufacturing (100 000) and construction (77 000). The decline in employment,
especially in manufacturing and construction during the first quarter of 2016, coincides
with the decline in business confidence indices in these sectors.

During the first quarter of 2016, the rate of unemployment increased by 2.2 percentage
points from 24.5% to 26.7%. The highest rate of unemployment was in the Free State
(33.9%), whilst the province with the lowest rate was Limpopo (18.2%).
The expanded rate of unemployment indicates that more than a third (36.3%) of the
labour force in the first quarter of 2016 was unemployed.

QUARTERLY ECONOMIC BULLETIN 2016 85