Page 33 - The Economist Asia January 2018

The Americas The Economist January 27th 2018 33
Also in this section
34 Honduras’s tarnished presidency
34 Jamaica’s lottery scammers
35 Bello: How the middle class votes

Brazil energise Lula. He embarked on a tour of
Not beaten yet Brazil, drawing enthusiastic crowds, espe-
cially in his native north-east, which bene-
fited more than other regions from social-
spendingprogrammes that he initiated.
This week’s affirmation of the guilty
verdict begins a race by the courts against
PORTO ALEGRE the electoral calendar. The ficha limpa law
Acourthas confirmed a guiltyverdictagainstLuizInácio Lula da Silva. That may can be invoked onlyafterLula registers asa
notend his career
candidate with the supreme electoral tri-
HE verdict was a bombshell but not a and wins, Brazil may face a constitutional bunal (TSE), which musthappen byAugust
Tsurprise. On January 24th, with police crisis. His candidacy would enrage voters 15th. Lula can appeal against any objection
helicopters in the sky over Porto Alegre, a who thinkthe rightplace to send him isjail, to his candidacy to the TSE and then to Bra-
city in Brazil’s south, and snipers on roof- not the presidential palace. Billboards in zil’s supreme court. In the meantime, he
tops, a three-judge panel at a federal court Porto Alegre depict him in prison uniform; can campaign. If the courts move slowly,
unanimously upheld the conviction of 40% of Brazilians would never vote for he could win the election only to have his
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former presi- him, the polls say. But if he is kept off the candidacy annulled by the supreme court,
dent, on chargesofcorruption and money- ballot in the first round on October 7th, the perhaps triggering a new election. That
laundering. Awaiting the decision, thou- slightly smaller group that supports him dire prospect will spur the judges to act
sands ofhis supporters camped less than a will damn the election as illegitimate. quickly, reckons Christopher Garman of
mile away. They were both angry and defi- Lula leftoffice atthe startof2011with an Eurasia Group, a risk-analysis firm.
ant. “It’s political persecution,” insisted Ev- approval rating of 83%. But in 2014 the If they bar Lula before September 17th,
eraldo de Souza, a construction worker economy entered its worst recession on re- his Workers’ Party (PT) could replace him
from the southern state ofSanta Catarina. cord. Then, in 2016, his protégée and suc- with another candidate. Gleisi Hoffmann,
The court’s decision has big implica- cessor, Dilma Rousseff, was impeached. In the party’s president, says there is no “Plan
tions forBrazil’s presidential election, to be September of that year Sérgio Moro, the B”. In fact, the PT would probably put up
held in October. Lula is the most popular federal judge in charge of Lava Jato (“Car another candidate should Lula drop out,
potential candidate by far. A recent poll Wash”), a vast corruption investigation, perhaps Fernando Haddad, an ex-mayor
suggested that 36% of voters would back agreed to hear charges that Lula accepted a ofthe cityofSão Paulo, orJaquesWagner, a
him, double the share who support his seaside apartment worth 2.2m reais former governor of Bahia, a north-eastern
nearest rival, Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing ($690,000) from OAS, a construction firm. state. But the longer Lula stays in the con-
extremist. The confirmation of Lula’s In return, prosecutors alleged, Lula encour- test before withdrawing, the more votes
guilty verdict will not deter him from run- aged Petrobras, the state-owned oil com- his understudy is likely to win.
ning. Indeed, he was expected to an- pany, to award contracts to OAS during his The prospect of an election without
nounce his candidacy as The Economist time in office. LastJulyMrMoro found Lula Lula has cheered financial markets, which
went to press. The presidential campaign guilty and sentenced him to more than fear that he would resume Ms Rousseff’s
has, in effect, started in a courtroom. nine years in jail. The judgment was sus- spendthrift policies. After the news from
This means that the election, thought pended pending appeal. The appeals- Porto Alegre, Brazil’s currency jumped by
bysome to be the mostimportantsince the court judges increased the sentence to 12 more than 2% against the dollar.
end of dictatorship in 1985, will be a mess. years, but are not enforcingit immediately. ManyofLula’sfoeswould preferhim to
The ficha limpa (clean record) law, signed Lula says the apartment was never his stay in the race, in part to persuade his sup-
by Lula himself in 2010, bars candidates and vigorously protests his innocence. He porters to respect the outcome. “It would
whose convictions have been upheld by accuses Mr Moro of plotting to deny him a be betterforhim to be defeated politically,”
an appealscourtfrom runningforoffice for third term as president. said Brazil’s president, Michel Temer, to
eight years. IfLula finds a way around that, The original guilty verdict seemed to Folha de S. Paulo, a newspaper. Even rival 1