Page 34 - The Economist Asia January 2018

34 The Americas
2 candidates may want Lula’s name on the ciencies”. Its secretary-general, Luis Alma- The Economist January 27th 2018
ballot. Mr Bolsonaro portrays himself, im- gro, proposed a fresh election. Many
plausibly, as the only man who can van- observers thought Mr Hernández’s candi-
quish him. “The chances ofboth are predi- dacy was itself illegitimate. It happened
cated on meeting each other in the second onlybecause in 2015 the biddable supreme
round,” says MrGarman. court ruled invalid the term limit written
Thatisbecause a lessdivisive candidate into the constitution.
would probably beat either of them. Plen- Outside Honduras, almost no one is lis-
ty of people may be thinking of offering tening. The European Union, which also
themselves forthat role, includingGeraldo sent monitors, described the election as
Alckmin, the governor of São Paulo state, “well organised”. The Trump administra-
Henrique Meirelles, the finance minister, tion soon recognised Mr Hernández’s vic-
and Luciano Huck, a television star. None tory. The United States regards Mr Hernán-
has so far made much impression on vot- dez, a tough-on-crime conservative, as an
ers. Whether he is on or off the ballot, the ally in its fight against drug-trafficking and
passions that Lula stirs up will dominate migration from Central America. Some
the elections. “We won’t give up on him,” 500 American troops are stationed at the
says Danielle, a primary-school teacher Soto Cano airbase in central Honduras.
who travelled overnightto Porto Alegre ex- Most other countries in the Americas,
pecting a negative ruling by the court. “He including Argentina, Brazil, Canada and
lost the battle but hasn’t lost the war.” 7 Mexico, also backed Mr Hernández. They Hernández, tough on crime and on voters
dislike in general the idea of outsiders in-
fluencing countries’ domestic politics. “No Uruguay’s presidency in 2019.
Honduras government…wants to have their election His obdurate stand may have made
A tarnished process challenged in the international trouble for MACCIH, an anti-corruption
agency in Honduras set up by the OAS. On
arena,” says an official at a Honduran
presidency NGO. That is especially true of the seven January18th congresspassed a budgetthat,
that are holding national elections in 2018,
in effect, grants congressmen elected since
amongthem Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. 2005 three yearsofimmunityfrom charges
Some Latin American leaders regard Mr of stealing public money. It hobbles
Nasralla as a flaky leftist. The main except- MACCIH, whose mandate expires in 2020.
Juan Orlando Hernándezhas little ions to the regional rush to endorse Mr On January22nd MrAlmagro appeared
legitimacy, butfewreal foes
Hernández are the left-wing governments to give up the fight, saying the OAS would
NSELMO VILLARREAL was cycling ofVenezuela and Bolivia. work “with the elected authorities”. Per-
Apasta protestin Sabá in northern Hon- Within Honduras, the opposition is not haps he was being prudent. But his surren-
duras on January 20th when he was shot, trying very hard to overturn his victory. der leaves the country’s battered democra-
apparently by a member of the security Though he has called on supporters to cy almost defenceless. 7
forces. MrVillarreal wasthe 32nd person to strike, Mr Nasralla has been presenting his
have died in protestsagainstthe re-election Sunday-morning sports show on televi-
on November 26th of Juan Orlando Her- sion. He appeared to concede defeat after Jamaica’s lottery scammers
nández as president of Honduras. In the the United States backed Mr Hernández,
country’s last upheaval, a coup in 2009 though without accepting the election re- Bad vybz
against the then-president, Manuel Zelaya, sult as fair. With Mr Nasralla’s retreat his
20 people died. mostprominentally, MrZelaya, haspublic-
The post-election death toll mayrise be- ly resumed his earlier role as de facto
fore Mr Hernández’s inauguration, sched- leaderofthe opposition.
uled for January 27th in Tegucigalpa, the Tegucigalpa is buzzing with rumours Astate ofemergencyin a Caribbean
capital. But resistance is weaker than it that he has struck a private deal with Mr touristhub
looks. The opposition Alliance coalition Hernández. Mr Zelaya is thought to be
had called for a nationwide strike, road- planning a presidential run in 2021. That ONTEGO BAY, Jamaica’s tourist capi-
blocks, a shutdown of international air- cause might be better served by amassing Mtal, isalso a hub forcall centres. Many
ports and a vaguely defined boycott. So far influence and money with Mr Hernán- work for American companies. But they
little of that is happening. Demonstrations dez’s help rather than by leading protests. have less respectable step-siblings: people
on January20th in Tegucigalpa and San Pe- The president could give MrZelaya a say in who scam gullible Americans and brawl
dro Sula, the second-biggestcity, drew few- picking appointees to such important jobs with each other over the proceeds. The
er than 1,000 people each. That is a far cry as chief prosecutor. He could allow Mr Ze- worlds of scamming and tourism collided
from the tens of thousands who came out laya’s Libre party, a constituent of the Alli- on January18th, when the government de-
a weekafterthe elections. ance, to gain control ofcongressional com- clared a state ofemergency in St James, the
That is not because Mr Hernández has mittees that allocate money. In return, Mr parish whose capital is Montego Bay.
convinced Hondurans that he won fairly. Zelaya would wind down the protests and Its murder rate is three times Jamaica’s
His main rival, Salvador Nasralla, a sports let MrHernández govern. and 50 times that of New York City. Last
broadcaster, led early in the vote count. Mr Almagro has been the loudest dis- year 335 people died violently in a district
Only after a glitch interrupted the publica- senter, for good reason. He led internation- with a population of 185,000. Britain and
tion of results by the electoral commission al condemnation of Venezuela’s drift to- Canada have told tourists to limit their
did Mr Hernández pull ahead, eventually wards dictatorship; to bless Mr movements outside gated resorts.
winning by 1.5 percentage points. That Hernández’s dubious victory would open One cause of the mayhem is scams in
looked fishy. Election monitors sent by the him to charges that he is applying a double which callers, using skills honed at St
Organisation ofAmerican States (OAS) ob- standard. The president’s friends accuse James’s call centres and contact lists pur-
served widespread “irregularitiesand defi- Mr Almagro of seeking publicity to run for loined from them, ring up mainly elderly 1