Page 37 - The Economist Asia January 2018

The Economist January 27th 2018
2 says the White House, at least. A Turkish 100 km Middle East and Africa 37
source said no such concerns were shared. Turkish troops/rebels TURKEY
While America loses leverage in Syria, Qamishli
Russia is filling the vacuum. It has mended Afrin Kurds IRAN
itsrelationship with Turkey, which reached Afrin Manbij “Rojava”, area claimed Erbil IRAQI
a low point in 2015, when the Turks shot Reyhanli Aleppo Raqqa by Kurds Mosul KURDISTAN
down a Russian fighter jet over Syria. Hap- Idlib
py to stoke tension between America and Russian Euphrates
air base
its allies, Russia almost certainly gave the Deir ez-Zor
operation in Afrin a green light. It may be Rebel-held S YRIA IRA Q
thatin return Turkeylooksthe other wayas
Russian and Syrian forces pound rebels in Mediterranean Sea Government Islamic State Government
Idlib, who are ostensibly allied with Tur- LEBANON Tigris
key against the Assad regime. But some
think the Russians will eventually turn on populated
Spar sely
Turkey and cut a deal with the Kurds that Damascus Baghdad
hands MrAssad control ofAfrin. ISRAEL Areas of control, Jan 2018
Source: IHS Conflict Monitor
A more immediate concern is whether JORDAN
the Turks plan to push into other YPG
strongholds. America has some 2,000 tory, which abuts the Turkish border, a fed- spite America. In response, the PYD said it
troops stationed in Syria, many in the eral region called Rojava. Itwasnot a move would probably not attend Russian-spon-
Kurdish-held north-east. If Turkish troops towards secession, said the PYD, but a sored peace talks at the end of January.
start shooting at YPG fighters in those ar- model for the rest of Syria. The regime of Still, Russia and MrAssad may see a poten-
eas, American soldiers could end up in the Bashar al-Assad dismissed the declaration tial partnerin the PYD, which has accepted
crossfire. The result could be a direct clash and the Turks seethed. But the Kurds, who Russian military support and maintained
between NATO allies. 7 make up around 10% ofSyria’s population, ties to the regime. The group is regarded as
have consolidated theirgrip on the north. more pragmatic than the other rebel out-
Shahoz Hasan, the PYD’s joint chief, re- fits. When MrAssad’sforcesretreated from
The war in Syria (2) fers to Rojava as a “democratic experi- areas in the north, they made sure to hand
ment”. The party has empowered women them to the PYD. One could imagine the re-
The precarious and set up village committees, in line with gime and the Kurds supporting a deal that
the teachings of Murray Bookchin, an keeps Mr Assad in power and grants Ro-
state of Rojava American philosopher whose writings java autonomy.
have greatly influenced the Kurdish move- Butthe Kurdswill probablyhave to con-
ments in Syria and Turkey. But Rojava is cede some of their gains in order to keep
DEIR EZ-ZOR AND QAMISHLI hardly pluralistic. The PYD represses critics most of Rojava. Any deal would probably
Syria’s Kurds tryto keep control oftheir and otherKurdish parties. require Kurdish forces to be folded into the
territory
The PYD’s leaders say they will never national army; captured oilfields to be re-
BU JABR waited more than three years again allow Rojava to be ruled directly turned to the central government; and
Ato exact his revenge. In 2014 the jiha- from Damascus. For decades the Kurds in seized Arab landsto be given up. “Ifreal ne-
dists of Islamic State (IS) murdered hun- Syria suffered under the oppression of Mr gotiations happen we will talk about all
dreds of his fellow tribesmen in the prov- Assad and, before him, his father. Many these things,” says Mr Hasan. “We are al-
ince of Deir ez-Zor. Mr Jabr returned to his were stripped of their citizenship and de- ways open for discussions.” First, though,
village in December, leading a group of tri- nied the right to own property. Others he must deal with the Turks. 7
bal fighters. Backed by American air pow- were booted offtheirland to make way for
er, his men have driven IS into the desert Arabs. Kurdish publications were banned
along the Iraqi border. The jihadists still and private schools were prohibited from
send car bombs into his lines, but he says teaching the Kurdish language. Little in-
they will be defeated soon. American-led vestment flowed into the oil- and gas-rich
airstrikesare said to have killed up to 150 ji- region. Instead the regime in Damascus
hadists in Deirez-Zoron January 20th. milked the fertile northern plains to feed
Mr Jabr’s men fall under the command the restofthe country. Asa result, the Kurds
of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a are desperately poor.
Kurdish-led alliance formed to defeat IS in Surrounded by potential enemies and
northern and eastern Syria. Armed and in need ofsupport, the PYD hasflirted with
trained by America, the SDF is close to vic- nearly all of the combatants in Syria. Its
tory. Its flags flutter over a quarter of the strongest backer is America, which views
country, much of which was once held by the PYD’s armed wing, the People’s Protec-
the jihadists. But when Turkish tanks rum- tion Units (YPG), as the most dependable
bled into the Kurdish-held western enclave ground force against IS. America has given
of Afrin on January 20th (see previous it weapons and training, and deployed
story), the Kurds suddenly found them- 2,000 of its own troops to the region. Fear-
selves fightingon two fronts. ing a return ofthe jihadists and Iranian he-
Turkey’s anger has grown as the area gemony, America has promised to stay in
under Kurdish control expanded, over the north-eastern Syria until a peace deal is
course ofthe war, to include even Arab and reached. The PYD does not think it will al-
Turkoman towns captured from IS (see low the Turks to go beyond Afrin.
map). In 2016 the ruling Democratic Union Russia, which backs Mr Assad, proba-
Party(PYD) declared the Kurdish-held terri- blyblessed the Turkish operation, if onlyto Kurds curse Turkey