Page 35 - The Economist Asia January 2018

The Americas 35
The Economist January 27th 2018
2 Americans to tell them they’ve won a lot- Palmer, known to his fans as the “worl’ gency is popular with residents, even
tery. The prize is fictitious; the fees paid by boss” of Jamaican music, sang “Dem call it though few thinkit is a cure forviolence.
the victim to claim it are not. scam, me call it a reparation.” He is serving Itssuccessdependson howwell the po-
The scam has lower barriers to entry a life sentence in jail formurder. lice and army put it into practice. The
than the business of shipping Colombian The government takes a stern view of omens from the police are worrying. At
cocaine to the United States, another thriv- the violence that scamming leads to. Un- Christmas they staged a “sick-out” to force
ing activity in Jamaica. Weapons for both der the state of emergency, the police and the government to raise their pay (they
come from the exchange of drugs for guns army can search premises and detain sus- failed). In January a prosecutor charged
with Haiti. Scammers fight over access to pects without a warrant. The order sus- two officers and other alleged members of
contact lists. Couriers bringing in cash pends habeas corpus and allows courts to a gangwith murder, robbery and rape.
sometimes abscond, provoking revenge hold trials behind closed doors. Parlia- The emergencystarted with the busting
killings. Gunmen rob scammers when ment can extend it after 14 days by a two- of a contraband-fuel racket. But after two
they pickup loot at remittance agencies. thirds majority. That will require votes days, gunmen killed one man and injured
Some Jamaicans see little wrong with from the opposition, but it looks as if the five at a gangland funeral. Few tourists will
bilking Americans. Adidja “Vybz Kartel” governmentcan counton those. The emer- be tempted to explore St James just now. 7

Bello Fear of falling

The middle class can promote stability—butnotalways
OMETHING unexpected happened in the past, Latin America’s middle class was ments in the 1970s were backed by a mid-
SChile’s presidential election last composed of independent professionals dle class fearful of socioeconomic disor-
month. In the firstround in November, Se- and public employees. The new middle der. There isan echo ofthatin the support
bastián Piñera, a centre-rightformer presi- class tends to work in the private sector, as that early opinion polls give among the
dentwho wasthe favourite, stumbled. He managers, technicians or owners of small better-off and better-educated in Brazil to
won only 37% of the vote, six points less businesses. They are “aspirational and Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist. His
than the combined tally of two left-of- emerging”, says Mr Walker. Many have supporters blame the Workers’ Party of
centre candidates. Butin the run-off an ex- benefited from globalisation. Some may Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for an economic
tra 1.4m voters turned out for Mr Piñera, work in the informal sector; they think of slump that slashed living standards and
giving him a comfortable victory. Many themselves as self-made. Rather than be- saw a rise in crime as well as corruption.
of them had stayed away in the first ing genuinely middle class, some simply Nonetheless, many of the new lower-
round. Most were new recruits to Chile’s have more money than they used to. middle-class Brazilians love Lula, whom
middle class alarmed by the prospect of a A large middle class is often seen as a they associate with earlier economic
swing to the left under Mr Piñera’s oppo- guarantee of democratic stability: with growth and cheap student loans and
nent, Alejandro Guillier. much to lose, it has an interest in property housingcredits.
As Latin America begins a series of rights, limits on state power and policy In today’s Latin America, the new
presidential elections this year against a continuity. But turmoil can precede stabil- middle classes’ main demand is for better
background ofsluggish economic growth ity. Samuel Huntington, an American po- services, from higher education to health
and anger over crime and corruption, the litical scientist, noted in 1968 that “the true care and policing. But that doesn’t neces-
Chilean result is a reminder that its mid- revolutionary class” in modernising soci- sarily imply public services, or a big state
dle class is bigger and more influential eties was the middle class, but that it be- and support for the left. “They oscillate
than ever. But its political impact is far came more conservative as it grew. between ‘Letme progress’ and ‘Protectme
from straightforward. And that is because It is not clear whether Latin America’s if I fall,’” says Sérgio Bitar, a Chilean for-
the term itselfrequires unpacking. middle class will follow the same trajec- merministerwho advised MrGuillier.
What is clear is that the region’s mid- tory. Historically, it tended to ally with Take Bolivia, where a mestizo middle
dle class has grown. The World Bank as- trade unions against oligarchic rule. But it class has grown under Evo Morales, the
signs this status to people who have daily was sometimes counter-revolutionary. left-wing president who has governed
incomes of $10-50, enough to offer some Military coups against left-wing govern- since 2006. Ithasnowturned against him.
security. By this measure, 34% of Latin Afterprotests, thisweekMrMorales with-
Americans were middle class in 2015, up drew a new criminal code that was seen
from 21% in 2003. A further 39% had in- as oppressive. In Mexico the middle class
comes of$4-10 a day. They were no longer twice voted tactically to prevent Andrés
poor but could easily become so again. Manuel López Obrador, a left-wing popu-
This rise in income—the result of faster list, from winning the presidency. In this
economic growth between 2003 and year’s contest Mr López Obrador is striv-
2011—went side by side with a big expan- ing to appear more moderate. As less ex-
sion in education and in ownership of treme candidatesemerge in Brazil, its mid-
durable goods, from computers and cars dle class may shun MrBolsonaro.
to wide-screen televisions. Some 42% of Thiselectoral cycle will showwhether
respondents to Latinobarómetro, a re- Latin America’s middle classes have ma-
gionwide poll, describe themselvesas be- tured politically. If so, they will vote for
ing“middle class”. candidates of the left or right who offer a
These “middle sectors” as Ignacio well-judged mix of opportunity, social
Walker, a Chilean politician and political protection and stability. If not, Mr Bolso-
scientist calls them, are heterogeneous. In naro and his ilkhave a chance.