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28 Asia
2 quickly if the fear of a future resurgence of
covid-19 could be dispelled. “The worst
thing we can do for our country is yo-yo be-
tween levels [of lockdown],” says Jacinda
Ardern, the prime minister.
Yet finding every last case of the virus
will be difficult. “It’s a needle-in-a-hay-
stack phenomenon,” says Ayesha Verrall of
Otago University. The current random test-
ing of workers in risky jobs, regardless of
symptoms, will need to be expanded. Con-
tact-tracing will also need to be made more
watertight. Initially, the government had
trouble reaching 40% of people it thought
might have been exposed to the disease.
Moreover, elimination will entail the
strictest border controls. At present, al-
most all foreigners are barred from enter-
ing the country, while returning citizens
are placed in quarantine for 14 days in mon-
itored hotels. Arrivals have slowed to a
trickle: on April 22nd not a single person
entered the country.
Ports are tightly controlled, too. Steve-
dores at Auckland’s work in small, isolated
teams, each with their own toilet, to reduce
the risk of an infection spreading widely.
The crews of arriving ships are not allowed
to disembark and can interact with only
three port workers, who are distinguished
by pink high-visibility vests, not to men-
tion face masks.
The government’s economic models as-
sume New Zealand will have to stay closed
to foreigners for a year. But some doubt it is
feasible, or worthwhile, to keep the borders
sealed. Steven Joyce, a former finance min-
ister, says eliminating the virus is “pie in
the sky”. Australia’s Chief Medical Officer,
Brendan Murphy, says that although elim-
ination is desirable, “We’re pretty doubtful
that could be maintained for the long term
given the incredible border measures you
would need to have.”
Even if elimination succeeds, many big
industries in New Zealand cannot hope to
return to normal. A halt to international “Doffering the main ingredients for
tourism, most notably, will knock about
5% off gdp and put some 100,000 people
out of work. Border closures will hit farm-
ers, too. Each year New Zealand and Austra-
lia bring in hundreds of thousands of back-
packers and seasonal workers to pick fruit
and prune grape vines. With borders
closed, wineries and farms are short-
staffed. Mike Chapman of Horticulture
New Zealand, a lobby group, worries that it
will be difficult to tempt unemployed
urbanites up ladders to pick apples.
Exporters are struggling to find space
on the few planes still leaving the country.
Before the crisis 80% of New Zealand’s air
freight was carried on passenger planes.
Air New Zealand, the national carrier, has
cut 95% of its international passenger
flights. Crayfish farmers beat tomato--
growers to some of the scarce outbound ca-
pacity, Mr Chapman notes ruefully.
In the meantime, in pursuit of elimina-
tion, Ms Ardern recently announced a five-
day extension of New Zealand’s strict lock-
down. The extra short-term cost, she says,
will give “much greater long-term health
and economic returns”.
Others are managing borders different-
ly. South Korea still admits foreigners, pro- er than the average in the g7. There is even
vided they remain in quarantine for 14
days. A few can even evade quarantine, in-
cluding some business people on short
trips. They are tested on arrival and, if neg- raised the prospect of a “trans-Tasman bub-
ative, can travel widely on the condition
that they answer when called by health
workers and diligently record any symp-
toms in an app. Taiwan is permitting some
Moonshine in Sri Lanka
Worth a shot
COLOMBO
A ban on sales of alcohol begets a nation of brewers
ates, jaggery?” asked the grocer,
brewing palm wine. His customer
bought both, tucking them away with his
onions and lentils before disappearing
down a narrow lane in a suburb of Co-
lombo, Sri Lanka’s capital.
On March 21st the government closed
all bars and liquor shops as part of a
series of restrictions to curb the spread of arrested two men making liquor in 36
covid-19. The intention, it said, was to
prevent “drink parties” at which the virus
might spread and to reduce unnecessary
shopping trips. Small wonder: when the
government first began introducing
countrywide measures to slow the
spread of the disease, “wine shops”—
ubiquitous small stores selling mainly
beer and liquor—were mobbed (social
distancing be damned) by customers
frantically stocking up.
Since then, booze has been hard to
The Economist April 25th 2020
business visitors, too, subject to quaran-
tine rules.
Yet New Zealand’s elimination plan has
widespread public support. A poll in early
April found that 84% of New Zealanders
approve of the government’s response to
the pandemic—30 percentage points high-
hope that other countries may be able to
join its putative virus-free zone. The depu-
ty prime minister, Winston Peters, has
ble” once both Australia and New Zealand
have the virus tightly under control. That
could also include some Pacific coun-
tries—provided it does not burst. 7
obtain. Supermarkets offer deliveries,
but few have a licence to sell alcohol. For
a time, enterprising distributors ar-
ranged deliveries of liquor, too, until the
authorities made it clear that these were
banned. A black market has sprung up,
but sellers are hard to find and prices are
prohibitive. A bottle of “gal”, which is
distilled from coconut-palm sap, goes for
almost three times its normal price of
about 1,850 rupees ($9.75).
The obvious, albeit illegal, solution is
home-brewing. Sri Lankans desperate for
a tipple are mixing everything from beets
to pineapple with sugar, water and yeast,
and leaving the cocktail to ferment. The
result can be cloudy, fizzy and sickly
sweet, but is at least mildly alcoholic.
The more ambitious are trying to distil
these brews into something stronger.
One home-distiller describes fending off
inquiries from the man who delivers
cooking-gas canisters, who wants to
know why his consumption has shot up.
The next wave of hospital admissions, a
common joke runs, won’t be victims of
the virus, but of alcohol poisoning.
The police say they have uncovered
18,000 instances of illicit alcohol produc-
tion. On April 13th, for instance, officials
barrels in a swamp. Home-brewers are
harder to catch. The government, which
is losing some 500m Sri Lankan rupees
($2.6m) a day in forgone tax, has asked
the telecoms regulator to find some way
to stem the sharing of recipes on social
media. “They are using Grade Six science
knowledge to manufacture alcohol at
home,” complains Kapila Kumarasinghe
of the excise department. All the same,
he admits, “We can’t very well go house
to house, raiding kitchens.”