Page 7 - NorthAmOil Week 06 2023

NorthAmOil PERFORMANCE NorthAmOil

Bakken holding back US

oil production growth

US NORTH Dakota’s Bakken play is reported to be in 2022. Demand has not declined for two con-
holding back the US’ oil production growth. secutive years since 2006.
The US Energy Information Administration As a result of less-than-normal natural gas
(EIA) projects that the country’s 2024 oil output consumption in January 2023, US gas invento-
will reach 12.65mn barrels per day, down from ries ended the month above their five-year aver-
an earlier projection in January of 12.8mn bpd. age, from 2018-22. The EIA said it now expected
This represents a decline of 1.2%. inventories to close the withdrawal season at the
But in 2023, production is now forecast to end of March at more than 1.8 trillion cubic feet
be slightly higher than previously expected, at (510 bcm), 16% more than the five-year average.
12.5mn bpd, up from the January projection of The US’ LNG exports are projected by the Even so, US crude
12.4mn bpd. This represents an upward revision EIA to reach 11.78 bcf (334mn cubic metres) per
of 0.6%, according to the agency’s new Short- day in 2023 and 12.59 bcf (357 mcm) per day in output in 2024
Term Energy Outlook (STEO). 2024, up from a record 10.63 bcf (301 mcm) per
Mature wells in the Bakken are producing day in 2022. is still expected
more gas than expected and will reduce oil out- That 2023 forecast is lower than the 12.06
put in 2024, the EIA told Bloomberg. bcf (342 mcm) per day projected in the January to set a record
Even so, US crude output in 2024 is still STEO. This is because the Freeport LNG export compared with
expected to set a record compared with the facility in Texas has been offline, and its restart
12.3mn bpd produced in 2019. has been delayed. It is not expected to return to the 12.3mn bpd
Dry natural gas production is forecast to full capacity for another month or more.
reach new records of 100.27bn cubic feet (2.84bn The EIA forecast that the Henry Hub natural produced in
cubic metres) per day in 2023 and 101.68 bcf gas spot price would average $3.40 per million
(2.88 bcm) per day in 2024, up from a high British thermal units ($94.04 per 1,000 cubic 2019.
of 98.09 bcf (2.78 bcm) per day in 2022. If the metres) in 2023, down almost 50% from last
forecast is accurate, this would mean that 2024 year and about 30% from the January STEO
is the fourth consecutive year that production forecast.
has risen and the first time that has been the case The agency said it had revised its outlook for
since 2015. Henry Hub prices because of weather that was
The agency also projected domestic gas con- significantly warmer than usual in January 2023.
sumption would fall to 87.04 bcf (2.46 bcm) per This has led to lower consumption than normal
day in 2023 and 86.10 bcf (2.44 bcm) per day in of gas for space-heating and pushed inventories
2024 from a record 88.63 bcf (2.78 bcm) per day above the five-year average.™

Week 06 09•February•2023 www. NEWSBASE .com P7