Page 7 - DMEA Week 50 2021

DMEA COMMENTARY DMEA

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TotalEnergies

figures such as warlord Khalifa Haftar and Saif
al-Islam Qaddafi, the son of the former dictator.” “Between 2011 and 2019, the main risk to oil
Sherriff also pointed out that oil and gas and gas production (and to a lesser extent power
sometimes attracted negative attention, even plants and refineries) was shut-ins by a range
in the absence of controversy over elections. of militia groups. The Libyan National Army
“Although NOC oilfields are normally the first (LNA) consolidated its control of most of Libya’s
to be targeted by militia, any high-profile pro- oil and gas infrastructure by late 2019 and ran-
ject is at risk from being attacked,” he com- dom shut-ins became rarer. The flipside of this is
mented. “Throughout 2019 and 2020, oilfields that LNA can choose to impose a near-nation-
were repeatedly shut in following attacks from wide blockade on oil and gas exports if it chooses
armed groups and Russian mercenaries backing to. LNA did exactly that in 2020 as a response to
the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa increasing Turkish involvement in Libya.”
Haftar.”
According to Hamish Kinnear, a Middle East Wait and see
and North Africa analyst for Verisk Maplecroft, In these conditions, it is far from clear that Lib-
Libya’s oil and gas industry is also at risk because ya’s oil, gas and power industry is on the verge
disputes over the results of the upcoming presi- of attracting a massive new wave of investment.
dential vote could trigger fighting afterwards. “A Certainly, IOCs are hardly likely to ignore
ceasefire remains in place for now, but war could Libya, given the size of the North African coun-
resume if the results of planned elections are try’s existing hydrocarbon reserves – and its
disputed,” he told NewsBase. “LNA could apply potential for future solar generation. However,
pressure to Tripoli-based rivals by shutting down they may want to wait and see what happens after
Libya’s oil and gas production, a lifeline for the the elections before making any new large-scale
country’s economy.” commitments.
Kinnear also drew attention to the implica- As Kinnear noted, “exploration ... is still
tions of LNA’s dominance in areas that are key [being] held back by the precarious political and
to the functioning of Libya’s oil industry, saying: security situation in the country.”™

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