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A26 U.S. NEWS
Saturday 28 March 2020
Not all or nothing: Anti-virus lockdowns could lift slowly

By CHRISTINA LARSON and added, should be based There are still restrictions demic puts enormous strain proach," Birx said at Thurs-
RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDI- on information about infec- in place — such as limits on hospitals, health care day's White House briefing.
VAR tion rates that can only be in how many people can workers and other patients While few details are avail-
Associated Press able, this approach seems
WASHINGTON (AP) — For to differ from other coun-
the millions of Americans tries that have focused on
living under some form identifying and isolating in-
of lockdown to curb the fected individuals and their
spread of the coronavirus, close contacts.
not knowing when the re- In South Korea, which man-
strictions will end is a major aged to curb an early out-
source of anxiety. Will life break without fully shutting
events — weddings, funer- all businesses and schools,
als, even just simple nights widespread testing allows
out with friends — be de- health workers to find in-
layed for a few weeks, a fected people and aggres-
few months or much lon- sively track down people
ger? they came into contact
President Donald Trump with — thus allowing them
gave one answer this week, to contain the spread of
saying he hoped businesses infection. For the U.S. to
would reopen by Easter, on learn from this example or
April 12, citing the severe adopt a similar approach,
damage restrictions have the first step is more wide-
done to the economy. Most spread testing, said Eliza-
public health experts, how- beth Halloran, a biostatisti-
ever, caution that it would cian at the Fred Hutchinson
be reckless to lift restrictions In this March 20, 2020 file photo, extremely light traffic moves along the 110 Harbor Freeway Cancer Research Center in
before COVID-19 infections toward downtown mid afternoon, in Los Angeles. Seattle. In addition to tests
have peaked and begun Associated Press that check whether people
to ebb — unleashing a sec- are currently infected, ex-
ond wave of cases that perts are also honing tests
could be just as damaging learned by increasing test- occupy an elevator or a who may see unrelated to detect whether some-
to the economy. ing. That will allow policy- conference room — and procedures delayed. one has had the disease in
Scientists are reluctant to makers to tailor restrictions widespread testing for the On Thursday came a grim the past. Scientists expect
predict exactly when re- to fit the outbreak in differ- disease continues. milestone and reminder that people who have re-
strictions could be safely ent areas. A second outbreak could that the United States has covered from COVID-19
loosened, but based on Rather than imagining the prompt future clamp- not begun to flatten the will have some immunity to
what they've observed in lockdown as having an on/ downs. curve of the epidemic: The it, though they aren't sure
China — the first country off switch – where the only "People should be pre- total number of confirmed for how long.
struck by the new virus — choice is between com- pared for the fact that infections — more than This information could bet-
some relief could come pletely shutting down the we are not going back to 83,000, according to Johns ter inform decisions. Per-
approximately six to eight country or throwing all rules completely normal life for a Hopkins University — sur- haps people with immunity
weeks after lockdowns out the window — many sci- while," said Mark Jit, a dis- passed China's toll. could be among the first to
are implemented. That is entists advocate for chart- ease researcher at the Lon- The White House is now return to work — or may-
based on the assumption ing a course in between, don School of Hygiene and considering a data-driven be the data would reveal
that cases could peak two where restrictions can be Tropical Medicine. "But we approach. what locations or behaviors
or three weeks after lock- ramped up or down. Imag- also need to allow people In a letter Thursday to Amer- are the riskiest for disease
downs begin, and gradu- ine that the lockdown has to see the light at end of ica's governors — who spread, said Abuelezam.
ally decline for the next two a volume dial that can be the tunnel." have largely been the ones Before relaxing social-dis-
or three weeks. twisted up or down. The metaphorical dial of re- implementing the restric- tancing restrictions, there
While we may yearn for a "With more information, we strictions could be set in dif- tions in the U.S. — Trump will also need to be ample
clear timeline for when life can target our responses ferent positions, depending said that his administration supply of protective gear
will return to normal, scien- to be the most impactful," on what expanded testing was planning to expand for health care workers,
tists say that isn't exactly said Nadia Abuelezam, a reveals about how many "robust surveillance testing, said Halloran. Shortages of
the right question. Rou- disease researcher at Bos- people in an area are cur- which allows us to moni- masks and other supplies
tines won't resume exactly ton College. That might rently infected — and how tor the spread of the virus have put them in jeopardy
as they were for several mean introducing people many have recovered from throughout the country." and threatened to slow or
months, or longer – but that back into the workforce in past infections. The information would be halt their work.
doesn't mean we'll all be stages, she suggested. The goal would be to allow used to "suggest guidelines There are no easy an-
stuck in total lockdowns un- Scientists are closely watch- people to partially return categorizing counties as swers, but scientists say it's
til then. ing what happens in other to their daily routines, while high-risk, medium-risk, or misleading to imagine a
"We can't simply wait inside countries that were struck limiting the chances of new low-risk," the letter said. choice between public
for two years for a COV- earlier by the coronavirus infections. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the gov- health and jobs.
ID-19 vaccine" to be devel- to see what happens when The new coronavirus ernment's top infectious "If you don't do enough
oped, said Stephen Morse, those places loosen restric- causes mild or moderate disease expert, and White about the virus, you're go-
a disease researcher at tions. symptoms in many people, House adviser Dr. Deborah ing to get steamrolled
Columbia University. "We Restaurants and offices but even if only a fraction Birx have recently outlined by it — which would also
have to find some way to have begun to reopen in of cases are severe enough the approach in media steamroll the economy,"
return to normal life." many Chinese cities, about to require hospitalization — briefings and interviews. said Jeffrey Shaman, a
Decisions on how and two months after the coun- between 14% and 20% — "What we are trying to do data scientist at Columbia
when to lift restrictions, he try began to lock down. the sheer scale of the epi- is utilize a laser-focused ap- University.q