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largest knock-on effect on poverty allocation remaining meager. reaching an all time high of 17.83 USD
reduction and building resilience, with While the functioning of the oil sector Billion in 2011 and a record low of 1
expenditures skewed toward defense will be essential for the GDP per USD Billion in 2019. The country’s GDP
and security. Consequently, poverty capita growth in South Sudan over per capita in 2014 was $1,111 dropping
levels are expected to remain extremely the coming decade or two, as a matter to less than $200 in 2017’—although
high on the back of severe food of prudence, the government should official government figures are higher.
insecurity and limited access to basic invest a substantial proportion of the Outside the oil sector, livelihoods
services across the country. About 82% oil revenues, particularly in agriculture, are concentrated in low productive,
of the population in South Sudan is poor and should cut its spending steeply as oil unpaid agriculture and pastoralists
according to the most recent estimates, revenues decline. work. Coupled with economic
based on the $1.90 2011 purchasing South Sudan is rich in agricultural land mismanagement, many years of conflict
power parity (PPP) poverty line. and has one of the largest populations of have eroded the productive capacity of
According to economic experts, one pastoralists in the world. However, since the country.
important consideration regarding 1999, when Sudan first started exporting
domestic spending and investments in oil, agricultural production in the With consumption, non-oil exports, and
domestic capital is potential capacity investment declining, oil production
constraints in the economy. The country has been on the decline to date. provides the immediate
experience from 2011, when fiscal sources of growth in
spending increased dramatically South Sudan. While the
and annual consumer price rehabilitation of oil fields and
inflation stood above 50%, and the resumption of oil production
experience from 2012, when the are underway, oil production
fiscal spending was rolled back and is not expected to reach
the inflation fell towards zero, hint pre-crisis levels in the short
at existence of binding bottlenecks term. The situation has
in the South Sudanese economy. been muddied by the fall in
Moreover the capacity of the global demand, and therefore
government to undertake in- prices, which translate to
vestments in public investment depressed revenues for the
management systems has shown country.
to be important for the efficiency Workers at an oil facility in South Sudan
of public investment spending. The The economy is estimated to have
role of institutions and governance, recovered with a growth rate of 3.2% in
apply similarly for the non-oil economy. This has been particularly catalyzed by FY 2018/19, from a contraction of 3.5%
Regardless of where economic growth the post independence conflict 2013- during FY2017/18. Inflation averaged
in South Sudan is to be generated, the 2020. 60.8% during FY2018/19 from 121.4%
institutional setting and implementation during FY 2017/18. The gap between the
of laws and regulations will be the According the World Bank, South Sudan official exchange rate and the parallel
guiding light. remains in a serious humanitarian crisis market rate remains high and increased
Although agriculture is considered due to the cumulative effects of years of from 65% in December 2018 to 85% in
the backbone of the economy of conflict which has destroyed people’s June 2019. The external sector current
South Sudan, agriculture is the least livelihoods and forced 4.2 million account deficit, excluding grants, rose
considered in budgetary allocation as of people to flee their homes – nearly two to 6.5% of GDP during FY2018/19 from
high priority. According to WFP, despite million inside and nearly 2.2 million 4.5% in FY 2017/18
the great potential for agricultural outside the country. Extreme levels of The bank’s Economic growth
development only 4 percent of the land acute food insecurity persist across the projections for FY2019/20 have been
is used for crop production. country and number of people who further downgraded to 4.3 percent,
To get a rough idea of the structure of the require humanitarian assistance as at reflecting lower oil prices and a
South Sudan economy going forward, we 2019 remains at seven million (more weak global economy on account of
can go to the South Sudan Development than half of the population), and women the COVID-19 pandemic. Private
Plan 2011-2013 (SSDP, Government and children continue to be the most consumption is expected to remain
of the Republic of South Sudan2011). affected. weak, contracting by 0.8 percent in
While the strategy projected growth FY2019/20. Border closures and social
in the oil sector in the long term, it The food insecure includes an distancing are expected to contribute to
projected a 40% decline in oil production estimated 1 million refuges and IDPs this contraction. Lower oil prices could
over the period 2011-2016, a gap that who have returned from neighboring be partly offset by higher oil production
government expected to plug through countries, and camps respectively, to
expansion of the agricultural economy, settle in villages that lack food or social (178,833 bpd) with exports increasing
investments in other extractive areas amenities. . by 14.5 percent in FY2019/20 but decline
(mining) and service industries, sectors sharply by -16.1 percent in FY2020/21.
that have shown immense potential, but GDP in South Sudan averaged 11.47 The budget deficit, excluding arrears,
starved of investments, with government USD Billion from 2008 until 2019, is projected to grow to 3.7 percent of

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