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‫النمو ال�س‪‬ري لل‪‬م‪‬عة ‪ Zero population growth‬ﺃﺣﺪ ﺍﻻﺗﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺧﺮ￯ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻤﻮ‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﻤﺎﻋـﺔ ﻫﻮ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻮ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻱ ﻟﻠﺠﻤﺎﻋـﺔ ‪ . zero population growth‬ﻭﻳﺤـﺪﺙ ﺫﻟﻚ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬ ‫‪‬راء‪ ‬علية ﰲ ﺃﺛﻨـﺎﺀ ﻗﺮﺍﺀﺗﻚ‬

‫ﻳﺘﺴـﺎﻭ￯ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﺍﻟﻴﺪ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﺠـﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺟﻴﺔ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻌﺪﻝ ﺍﻟﻮﻓﻴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﺠـﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺪﺍﺧﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺍﻛﺘـﺐ ﺛﻼﺛـﺔ ﺃﺳـﺌﻠﺔ ﻋـﻦ ﺩﻳﻨﺎﻣﻴﻜﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﳉﲈﻋـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﴩﻳـﺔ‪ ،‬ﳚـﺐ ﺃﻥ ﻳﺒـﺪﺃ‬
‫ﺃﺣـﺪ ﺍﻟﺘﻮﻗﻌـﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟـﻢ ﺳـﻮﻑ ﻳﺼﻞ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻱ ﺑﻴـﻦ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﻴـﻦ ‪2020‬ﻡ )ﺣﻴﺚ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴـﺆﺍﻝ ﺑــ‪ :‬ﳌﺎﺫﺍ‪ ،‬ﻛﻴـﻒ‪ ،‬ﺃﻳـﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺘﻰ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﺨﺪﻡ ﻫﺬﻩ ﺍﻷﺳـﺌﻠﺔ ﳌﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺯﻣﻼﺋﻚ‬
‫ﺳـﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻋـﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴـﻜﺎﻥ ‪ 6.64‬ﻣﻠﻴـﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻧﺴـﻤﺔ( ﻭ ‪2029‬ﻡ )ﺣﻴـﺚ ﺳـﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺴـﻜﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﺋـ ﹴﺬ ‪ 6.90‬ﻣﻠﻴﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻧﺴـﻤﺔ(‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺬﺍ ﻳﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺴـﻜﺎﻧﻲ ﺳـﻴﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋـﻦ ﺍﻟﺰﻳﺎﺩﺓ؛ ﻷﻥ‬ ‫ﰲ ﳏﺘﻮﻳﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛ ﹰﹼﻼ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻮﻻﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻮﻓﺎﺓ ﺳـﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴـﺒﺔ ﻧﻔﺴـﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺼﻞ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ‬
‫‪ í‬ﺍﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 3-14‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻷﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺮﻱ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﻱ ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺳﻴﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻛﺜﺮ ﺍﺗﺰﺍ ﹰﻧﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺃﻋﺪﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ‬ ‫ﰲ ﺳﻨﻮﺍﺕ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﳋﺼﻮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﳋﺼﻮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻋﻤﺎﺭﻫﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻋﻤﺎﺭﻫﻢ‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﳋﺼﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﺩﻭﻝ ﳐﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ‪ ،‬ﺣﻴﺚ ﺳﺘﻜﻮﻥ ﺃﻋﺪﺍﺩﻫﻢ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﻭﻳﺔ ﺗﻘﺮﻳ ﹰﺒﺎ‪.‬‬

‫التر‪‬ي‪‬ب العمري ‪ Age structure‬ﻣﻦ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺍﻷﺧﺮ￯ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﺟﻤﺎﻋﺔ ﺣﻴﻮﻳﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴـﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﻱ‪ .‬ﻳﻘﺼﺪ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺮﻛﻴﺐ ﺍﻟﻌﻤـﺮﻱ ‪ age structure‬ﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻟﺬﻛﻮﺭ ﻭﻋﺪﺩ ﺍﻹﻧﺎﺙ ﻓﻲ‬

‫ﻛﻞ ﻣـﻦ ﺍﻟﻔﺌـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮﻳـﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ‪ :‬ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒـﻞ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ )ﻋﺪﻡ ﺍﻟﻘـﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻧﺠﺎﺏ(‪،‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ )ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻧﺠﺎﺏ( ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ )ﺍﻧﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻘﺪﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻧﺠﺎﺏ(‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﻌـ ﹼﺪ ﺍﻹﻧﺴـﺎﻥ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻧﺠﺎﺏ ﻗﺒـﻞ ﻋﻤﺮ ‪ 20‬ﻋﺎ ﹰﻣﺎ ﺣﺘـﻰ ﻭﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻗﺎﺩ ﹰﺭﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻗﺒﻞ ﻫﺬﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﻴﻦ ﻳﻜﻮﻥ ﻗﺎﺩ ﹰﺭﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻧﺠﺎﺏ )ﻓﺘﺮﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ( ﺑﻴﻦ ‪ 20‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ 44‬ﻋﺎ ﹰﻣﺎ‪،‬‬

‫ﻭﻳﺼﻞ ﺍﻹﻧﺴﺎﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻓﺌﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻮﺑﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻳﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻋﻤﺮﻩ ‪ 44‬ﻋﺎ ﹰﻣﺎ‪.‬‬

‫‪‬‬

‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪@‬‬ ‫‪80+‬‬ ‫‪@‬‬ ‫‪1915‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪75–79‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬ ‫‪1915–1919‬‬
‫‪70–74‬‬ ‫‪1920–1924‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬
‫‪65–69‬‬ ‫‪1925–1929‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪60–64‬‬ ‫‪1930–1934‬‬
‫‪55–59‬‬ ‫‪1935–1939‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪50–54‬‬ ‫‪1940–1944‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪45–49‬‬ ‫‪1945–1949‬‬
‫‪40–44‬‬ ‫‪1950–1954‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪35–39‬‬ ‫‪1955–1959‬‬
‫‪30–34‬‬ ‫‪1960–1964‬‬
‫‪25–29‬‬ ‫‪1965–1969‬‬
‫‪20–24‬‬ ‫‪1970–1974‬‬
‫‪15–19‬‬ ‫‪1975–1979‬‬
‫‪10–14‬‬ ‫‪1980–1984‬‬
‫‪5–9‬‬ ‫‪1985–1989‬‬
‫‪0–4‬‬ ‫‪1990–1994‬‬

‫‪10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10‬‬ ‫‪6420246‬‬ ‫‪6420246‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫* ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -1‬ﺍﻟﺴﻌﻮﺩﻳﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻜﺘﺎﺏ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻮﻱ )‪ (45‬ﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪1430-1431‬ﻫـ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺼﻠﺤﺔ ﺍﻹﺣﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻣﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﺗﻮﻧﺲ‪ :‬ﻣﻜﺘﺐ ‪ Census‬ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺺ ﺑﻌﻠﻢ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻥ ‪ -‬ﺣﺴﺐ ﺍﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ ﺍﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮﻭﻧﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪wwwcensusgovpopulationinternationaldataidbinformationgatwayphp‬‬

‫ﻣﺩﺭﺳﺔ ﺍﻟﺟﻳﻭﻟﻭﺟﻳﺎ‬ ‫‪92‬‬
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