Page 31 - CCFA Journal - Ninth Issue

加中金融 风险管理 Risk Management
加中金融

European natural gas storage tanks were reported to be 95% 据报道，欧洲天然气储罐在 11 月初已满 95%，天然气价
full at the beginning of November , and natural-gas prices 格自夏季以来下跌了约三分之二。
have fallen by about two-thirds since the summer .
其他通胀因素包括供应链中断、封锁、被压抑的需求、
Other inflation factors are supply chain disruptions, 更高的可支配收入和更高的劳动力成本。除非有更危险
lockdowns, pent-up demand, higher discretionary income, 的 Covid 变种，否则这些因素似乎已被定价并可能缓解。
and higher labour costs. Unless there are more dangerous
Covid variants, these factors seem to have been priced in and 中国的封锁很可能在 2023 年减少限制。随着更有效的疫
are likely to alleviate. 苗和治疗方法、医疗保健系统的改善以及对奥密克戎变
种的更好了解，中国最近取消了入境航班的熔断机制，
China has recently eased Covid restrictions. With more
effective vaccines and treatments, improved healthcare 这可能是一系列措施的开始，尽管中国可能会在冬季看
systems, and better understanding of the Omicron variants, 到 Covid 反弹，明年春季可能会出现大幅提升。减少对公
even more restriction measures are likely to be lifted in the 共卫生措施限制将导致铜和铝等材料价格上涨。中国可
coming months. Less restrictive public health measures would 能会增加石油进口，部分原因是石油产品出口配额增加，
lead to higher prices of materials such as copper and 这将支撑油价。
aluminum. China may increase oil imports in part driven by 总体而言，预计 2023 年世界通胀将有所改善。
increased oil products export quota, which would be
supportive of oil prices. 利率将继续上升，但终端利率将取决于通货膨胀。如果
通胀压力下降，终端利率可能低于截至 2022 年 11 月 3 日
Overall, world inflation is expected to improve in 2023.
的预测 4.75%~5%区间。
Rates will continue to rise, but the terminal rates will depend
on inflation. If inflation pressure declines, terminal rates may 经济学家对经济预测的共识是 2023 年会有温和的衰退。
be below the 4.75% - 5% range forecast as of November 3, 尽管对今年全年的共识仍是略微积极的 - 美国 GDP 增长
2022. +0.2%， 但这足以平衡连续几个季度的经济下滑。

The consensus economic forecast has now fallen to the point 然而尽管预期经济放缓，但美国经济似乎仍然强劲。11
that a mild recession is priced in for 2023. Although the 月 17 日，亚特兰大联储模型对第四季度实际 GDP 增长的
consensus for the year as a whole is still for a marginally 最新估计为 4.2%。继 11月 16日美国零售销售报告显示 10
positive number – +0.2% U.S. GDP growth – that is weak 月环比稳定增长 1.3%后，第四季度实际个人消费支出增
enough to contain a few quarters of declining output. 长预测从 4.2%上调至 4.8%。经通胀调整后的零售销售在
10 月份环比增长 0.8%。这项指标不包括建筑材料和食品
However, despite an anticipated slowdown, the economy in
the U.S. still appears strong. The latest estimate for real GDP 服务，密切跟踪实际个人商品消费支出显示 上个月环比
growth in the Atlanta Fed’s model during Q4 was 4.2% on 增长 0.7%。
November 17 . After the U.S. retail sales report on November 总是有黑天鹅事件。对风险和业务的良好理解、整个公
16 showed a solid 1.3% m/m gain in October, the forecast of 司强烈的风险意识、有效的风险沟通渠道和先发制人的
Q4 real personal consumption expenditures growth increased 风险缓解机制是成功风险管理的关键。
from 4.2% to 4.8%. Inflation-adjusted retail sales rose 0.8%
m/m during October. This measure—excluding building
materials and food services, which closely tracks real personal
consumption expenditures on goods—was up 0.7% m/m last
month .

There are always black swan events. Good understanding of
risks and businesses, strong risk awareness across the firm, an
effective risk communication channel and a pre-emptive risk
mitigation mechanism are a key to successful risk
management.

All opinions of the authors are solely their own opinions and
do not reflect the opinion of RBC Global Asset Management
Inc. (RBC GAM). This is for informational purposes only and
should not be relied upon as a basis for investment decisions.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Interest
rates, market conditions, tax rulings and other investment
factors are subject to rapid change which may materially
impact analysis that is included in this document. This
information is not investment, tax or legal advice. Neither RBC
GAM nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever
for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the
information contained in this piece.

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE December 2022
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