Page 27 - CCFA Journal - Third Issue

Investment Forum 投资论坛 加中金融

结构化通胀下的投资风格切换

Investment Style Shifts under Structured Inflation

【作者】吴雅楠博士，CFA，快快一带一路控股有限公司和 上海亚厚资产管理有限
公司董事长

Dr. Yanan Wu， CFA, Chairman of Kuai Kuai Belt and Road Holding Co. & Shanghai
Yahou Asset Management Inc.

资本市场在中国农历新春前后发生风险偏好的变化。在中 The risk appetite of the global capital market changes around
国庆祝辛丑牛年春节假期，美国股市继续上扬，道琼斯指 the Chinese New Year. During the celebration of the New Year
数和纳斯达克指数均在盘中与收盘迭创历史新高。中国和 of ox, the US stock market continued to bull. The Dow Jones
美国资本市场在春节假期后却出现大幅震荡。股债双跌， and Nasdaq both hit record highs at intraday and close.
However, the capital markets of China and the United States
大宗商品则悉数上扬，市场对通胀和流动性可能的回收表
experienced sharp turbulence after the Chinese Spring Festival
达了担忧。2 月 23 日，美联储主席鲍威尔连续二天在美国 holiday break. Stocks and debts both fell, while commodities
国会发表证词，表示不必担心通胀威胁，称可能需要连续 all rose sharply. The market expressed concerns about the
三年才能实现联储的通胀目标。鲍威尔讲话后，美债收益 possible return of inflation and the withdrawal of liquidity.
率回落。但是，2 月 25 日，美国 10 年期国债收益率盘中 On February 23, Fed Chairman Powell issued a testimony
攀升至 1.6%，创 2020 年 2 月以来新高。美国 10 年期国债
before the US Congress for two consecutive days, saying that
隐含通货膨胀预期升至2014年以来最高水平。另一方面， the US economy did not have to worry about the threat of
随着美债飙升，10 年期美国国债的收益率已高于标普 500 inflation, and it might take three consecutive years to achieve
成分股的股息率。被视为风险资产的股市已丧失了相对于 the Fed’s inflation target. After Powell’s speech, US bond
债券市场的优势。以有色和原油为代表的全球大宗商品市 yields fell. However, on February 25, the US 10-year Treasury
场则出现躁动，纷纷创近期新高。中国的大宗商品市场也 bond yield climbed to 1.6% intraday, a new high since February
2020. The implied inflation expectations of the 10-year US
有至少29个品种创了近一年半的高位。股债和大宗商品市
Treasury bonds rose to the highest level since 2014.
场的表现都指向了通胀的隐忧。以 CPI 和 PPI 为代表的传
统通胀指数并未显示出通胀的迹象，资本市场的泡沫化趋 On the other hand, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has
势加剧了另类通胀的担忧。这种结构化通胀的新格局又将 been higher than the dividend yield of the S&P 500 constituent
会如何改变资本市场的投资风格的切换？ stocks. The stock market, regarded as a risky asset, has lost its
advantage over the bond market in terms of potential returns.
The global commodity markets represented by non-ferrous
metals and crude oil have been turbulent and have hit recent
highs. China’s bulk commodity market also had at least 29
commodities that have hit a high for nearly one and a half years
as at the end of February 2021. The performance of stocks,
bonds and commodity markets all point to the worry of
incoming inflation. The traditional inflation index represented
by CPI and PPI did not show any signs of inflation yet. The
bubble trend of the capital market has exacerbated concerns
about alternative inflation. How will this new pattern of
structured inflation change the shift of investment styles in the
capital market?

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE MARCH 2021 Page 27