Page 28 - CCFA Journal - Third Issue

加中金融
Investment Forum 投资论坛
1 月 14 日，拜登公布 1.9 万亿美元规模的经济救助计划，1
月 27 日，美联储议息会议维持基调，2 月 5 日，美国众议
院通过 1.9 万亿美元的经济救助计划。这三个关键日期之
后，美国预期通胀（10 年国债收益率减去 10 年通货膨胀
挂钩债券收益率）接连突破 2.1%和 2.2%台阶，2 月 16 日
上升至 2015 年以来的最高水平 2.24%。同时，美债利率也
仍在上行。
美债收益率和通胀预期同时上升，对于当前发生的全球利
率走高，值得关注的除了利率上升的推动因素之外，其背
后的政策背景都值得关注。从美国的角度来看，美债收益
率的快速攀升伴随的政策背景是发力点由货币转向财政，
叠加疫情形势得到控制。美国政策发力重点的转向，从近
期美国财政政策与货币政策的调整及市场反应来看，当前
美国政策发力的重点或由货币政策转向了财政政策。就业
问题则是美国政府推动财政发力的重要原因。
从美联储两大政策目标的角度来看，在宽松货币政策之下，
美国通胀预期上升明显，但美国就业形势仍旧较为严峻，
因此就业问题可能是美国政府推动财政政策发力的重要原
因。去年 4 月美国就业市场受到冲击之后，当前美国非农
就业仍有约 860 万人的就业缺口，永久性失业人数仍旧处
于高位水平。美联储主席鲍威尔表示当前美国实际失业率
应为接近 10%，美国劳动力市场还远未实现强劲水平。在
当前美国疫情好转的背景下，疫情防控措施放松或加快服
务业修复，同时通过财政政策发力拉动居民消费可能是解
决美国就业问题的可行途径。
对于美国后续的财政与货币政策组合，货币政策方面在当
前就业市场缺乏进一步改善的背景下，货币政策仍将维持
宽松，鲍威尔也表示将坚定致力于尽所能促进充分就业。
财政政策方面，民主党在和解程序已经启动的背景下，将
继续加快推动 1.9 万亿美元财政刺激计划，从拜登的竞选
纲领以及美国新任财长耶伦“Act Big”的发言来看，后续
美国财政政策也将保留加码的可能。
从风险资产来看，2 月上下半月，海外市场风险偏好从
Risk-On（进攻）切换为 Risk-off（防守）。交易风格和行
为表现为三个层面，首先是再通胀交易，体现为大宗商品
加速上涨，美债隐含的通胀率预期(10 年期美债收益率-
TIPS 收益率)创 2015 年以来的新高。其次是，经济复苏预
期的交易，体现为美元指数从回落到升高，美股小盘股
(罗素 2000 指数)从跑赢标普 500 指数到转向。第三是 政策
宽松交易，体现为纳斯达克从跑赢道琼斯指数到跑输。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE
Page 28
加中金融
On January 14, President Biden announced a US $1.9 trillion
economic rescue plan. On January 27, the Federal Reserve’s
meeting on interest rates maintained the view. On February 5,
the US House of Representatives passed a $1.9 trillion
economic rescue plan. After the three key dates, the expected
inflation (10-year Treasury bond yield less 10-year inflation-
linked bond yield) successively broke through the 2.1% and 2.2%
levels, and rose to the highest level since 2015 at 2.24% on
February 16, 2021. At the same time, US bond rates were still
rising.
US Treasury yields and inflation expectations have risen at the
same time. Regarding the current global interest rate hike, it is
worth paying attention to the policy background behind it, in
addition to the driving factors of the interest rate rise. From the
perspective of the United States, the macro background
accompanying the rapid rise in US bond yields is the shift from
monetary policy to fiscal policy, and the pandemic situation was
seemingly under control. From the recent adjustments in US
fiscal and monetary policies and the market reactions, the focus
of US policy efforts may have shifted from monetary policy to
fiscal policy. The employment issue is an important reason for
the US government to introduce fiscal measures.
From the perspective of the two major policy objectives of the
Fed, under the very accommodating monetary policy, inflation
expectations in the United States have risen significantly, but
its employment situation is still severe. Therefore, the
employment issue may be an important reason for the US
government to promote fiscal policies. Since the US job market
was hit in April last year, there is still an employment gap of
about 8.6 million non-agricultural jobs in the US, and the
number of permanent unemployed remains at a high level. Fed
Chairman Powell said that the current US real unemployment
rate should be close to 10%, and the US labor market is far from
achieving a strong level. The improvement of the pandemic
situation may will speed up the repair of the service industry,
while at the same time using fiscal policy to stimulate consumer
consumption may be a feasible way to solve the US
employment problem.
Regarding the subsequent combination of fiscal and monetary
policies in the United States, monetary policy will remain
relatively accommodating despite the lack of further
improvement in the current job market. Powell also expressed
his firm commitment to promoting full employment as much as
possible. In terms of fiscal policy, the Democratic Party will
continue to accelerate the promotion of the $1.9 trillion fiscal
stimulus plan to implement. Judging from Biden’s campaign
platform and the “Act Big” speech of the new US Treasury
Secretary Yellen, the follow-up of the US Fiscal policy will
possibly introduce further stimulating measures.
In terms of risky assets, the risk appetite in global markets
switched from Risk-On (offensive) to Risk-off (defensive) in
February. Trading style and investment behavior were
manifested in three levels. The first was re-inflation trading,
which was reflected in the accelerated rise of commodities, and
the implied inflation rate expectations of US Treasuries (10-
year US Treasury yield less TIPS yield) hit a new high since
2015. Secondly, the expected transaction of economic recovery
is reflected in the decline in the US dollar index and the rise in
the US small-cap stocks (Russell 2000 Index) outperforming
the S&P 500 Index in the first half of the month to reversing the
style in the second half of the month. The third is trading style
related to accommodating policies, which was reflected in the
Nasdaq going from beating the Dow Jones index in the first half
of the month to underperforming in the second half of the month.
MARCH 2021