Page 31 - CCFA Journal - Third Issue

Investment Forum 投资论坛
总的来说，美债长端利率上行阶段，全球股市未必趋势性
下跌。从当前全球经济基本面和货币政策环境来看，基本
面向上空间有助于支撑股市基本面，而短端利率的趋势上
行则对市场潜在冲击更大。全球复苏是否同步则会影响美
元指数和大宗商品的表现。2008 年金融危机后全球基本同
步复苏，美元维持弱势，大宗商品、新兴市场均有表现，
而2013年却是美国经济率先复苏“一枝独秀”，美元阶段
性走强，而其他市场需求仍未恢复，大宗商品价格下行。
通胀在后疫情时代的新周期下呈现结构化格局！资产已经
呈现泡沫化态势，但是 CPI 和 PPI 还没有显示出通胀迹象。
货币现象驱动的资产泡沫必然在这样结构化的通胀环境，
加大全球资本市场的波动。从经济复苏和企业盈利改善作
为分子，市场的无风险利率和通胀预期作为分母来看股市
的估值变化和风格切换，今年的主要矛盾将是分子的变化
速度能否超越分母的变化速度。无论是货币政策还是财政
政策，需要助力实体经济的复苏和企业盈利的增长，这样
最终反映在资本市场的风格切换。在结构化通胀格局下，
大宗商品将继续享受温和通胀和供需矛盾的双重红利，权
益市场将趋向机构主导的大盘价值风格，债券收益率将在
通胀预期引导下震荡筑顶区间后迎来配置价值。
CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE
加中金融
In general, when the long-term interest rates of US Treasuries
rise, global stock markets may not trend downward. Judging
from the current global economic fundamentals and monetary
policy environment, the fundamental’s improvement space
helps to support that of the stock market, while the upward trend
of short-end interest rates will have a greater potential impact
on the stock market. Whether the global recovery is
synchronized will affect the performance of the US dollar index
and commodities. After the 2008 financial crisis, the world
basically recovered simultaneously, and the US dollar remained
weak then, therefore both commodities and emerging markets
performed well. However, in 2013, the US economy took the
lead in recovery globally, and the US dollar strengthened in
stages, while other economies have not yet recovered, therefore,
commodity prices fell.
Inflation has clearly shown a structured pattern in the new cycle
of the post-pandemic era. Asset prices bubble while the
consumption and production side have not inflated yet. Asset
bubbles driven by monetary phenomena will inevitably increase
volatility of global markets in such a structured inflation
environment. From the perspective of economic recovery and
corporate fundamental improvement as the numerator, and the
market’s risk-free interest rate and inflation expectation as the
denominator, the stock market’s valuation adjusts and
investment style shifts as a result. The main puzzle this year will
be whether the numerator’s rate of change would exceed the
denominator’s rate of change. No matter monetary policies or
fiscal policies, they need to help the recovery of the real
economy and the growth of corporate earnings, which will
ultimately be reflected in the style shifts of the capital market.
Under the structured inflation paradigm, commodities will
continue to enjoy the dual dividends of moderate inflation and
the mismatch between supply and demand. The equity market
will trend towards a large-cap value style driven by institutional
participants, and bond market will have to wait for an allocation
opportunity when the bond yields reach the peak in
compensating the inflation expectations.
MARCH 2021 Page 31