Page 45 - CCFA Journal - Second Issue

加中金融

东盟成员国的人口红利与稳定的国内环境有利于承接中国低端 The demographic dividend and stable domestic environment of the
产业链，助推中国实现向高端产业链跨越，利好中国具备优势 ASEAN member states are conducive to undertaking China’s low-
的消费电子、家电、通信设备以及其他高端制造业，继续占据 end industrial chain and help China to leap to the high-end industrial
chain. It is good for China’s advantageous consumer electronics,
产业链的比较优势。同时，中国的食品、纺织和金属加工业将 home appliances, communication equipment and other high-end
受益于更低的成本，港口航运与跨境电商长期仍将受益。
manufacturing industries to continue to occupy the comparative
advantage of the industrial chain. At the same time, China’s food,
在疫情背景下，贸易自由度也存在着提升的内生动力。本次
RCEP 协议中包含了诸多鼓励缔约方通过电子方式改善贸易管 textile and metal processing industries will benefit from lower costs,
and also port shipping and cross-border e-commerce will continue to
理与程序的条款，无疑将进一步促进跨境贸易量的提升。贸易
benefit in the long run.
行业海外依存度在今年二季度有明显上行，而三季报跨境电商
类企业业绩集体爆发也印证了跨境电商服务商与制造商景气上 In the context of the pandemic, there is also an endogenous
行的长期趋势。随着跨境贸易环节成本的降低，未来出海的中 motivation to increase trade freedom. The RCEP agreement contains
many provisions that encourage contracting parties to improve trade
小商家群体或将进一步扩充，因此与跨境业务相关的 SAAS 化 management and procedures through electronic means, which will
管理系统的市场需求将抬头。
undoubtedly further promote the increase in cross-border trade. The
从产业升级的角度，随着区域内产业链分工协助进一步加强、 overseas dependence of the trade industry has clearly increased in the
优势互补、产业效率提升，低端制造业将加速向区域内其他国 second quarter of this year, and the collective outbreak of the
performance of cross-border e-commerce companies in the third
家转移，推动中国产业结构升级，中国在产业链中的优势地位 quarterly report also confirms the long-term upward trend of cross-
将得到巩固。中国对 RCEP 成员国的直接投资规模不断攀升， border e-commerce service providers and manufacturers. As the cost
持续高于美国和欧盟，2019 年达到了 158.52 亿美元，RCEP 的 of cross-border trade links decreases, the group of small and medium-
实施使得中国在国外投资建厂更为便捷，将有助于国内末端产 sized merchants going overseas may further expand in the future.
业向海外转移。但是，另一方面，发展阶段相对滞后的领域将 Therefore, the market demand for SAAS-based management systems
面临较大的竞争压力。从外商直接投资看，除港澳台地区外， related to cross-border business will rise.
日本、韩国、新加坡已成为中国最大的外商投资国，未来随着 From the perspective of industrial upgrading, with the further
对日本、韩国等国家逐步实施自由贸易协定，在日本、韩国领 strengthening of the division of labor in the industrial chain in the
先优势明显的部分高端产业领域，国内企业也将面临较大竞争 region, the complementary advantages, and the improvement of
压力。这将促使中国的产业结构进行更深层次的结构化改革， industrial efficiency, low-end manufacturing will accelerate the
加快转型升级步伐。 transfer to other countries in the region, promote the upgrading of
China’s industrial structure, and as a result, China’s dominant
深化改革和坚持开放仍然是中国的主旋律。中国在改革开放的 position in the industrial chain will be consolidated. The scale of
头四十年享受了全球化的红利。中国即将步入“十四五”规划 China’s direct investment in RCEP member states continues to rise,
和第二个百年的复兴，而国际局势也日趋复杂。中国需要更加 continuing to be higher than that of the United States and the
积极和主动地开拓新型全球化的新局面，打通区域协同和区域 European Union, reaching 15.852 billion U.S. dollars in 2019. The
implementation of RCEP makes it more convenient for China to
自由贸易的新模式。在“双循环”的新发展格局中，中国的国 invest and build factories abroad, which will help the transfer of
内的区域经济和都市圈将促使“内循环”激发新动能，包括 domestic end industries overseas. However, on the other hand, areas
RCEP 在内的海外区域自贸区将为“外循环”寻找新动力，延 where the development stage is relatively lagging will face greater
伸产业链，提升价值链！区域循环，优化资源，实现多赢！ competitive pressure. In terms of foreign direct investment, in
addition to Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and
Singapore have become China’s largest foreign investment countries.
In the future, with the gradual implementation of free trade
agreements with Japan, South Korea and other countries, domestic
companies will also face greater competitive pressure in some high-
end industries where Japan and South Korea have obvious
advantages. This will urge China’s industrial structure to carry out
deeper structural reforms and accelerate the pace of transformation
and upgrading.

Deepening reform and persisting in opening-up is still the main
theme for China. China has enjoyed the dividends of globalization in
the first 40 years of reform and opening-up. China is about to enter
the “14th Five-Year Plan” and the second century of revival, while
the international situation is becoming increasingly complex. China
needs to be more proactive in exploring a new paradigm in a new
type of globalization, opening up new models of regional
coordination and regional free trade. In the new development
paradigm of “double circulation”, China’s domestic regional
economy and metropolitan area will stimulate its domestic
circulation with new momentum, while overseas’ regional free trade
circulation, extending China’s industrial chain, as well as increasing
its value chain! Regional circulation and resource optimization will
hopefully achieve win-win for both China and the RCEP region!

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE DECEMBER 2020
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