Page 45 - CCFAJournal-FirstIssue

加中金融

外部经济环境方面，我们当然还要继续注意。中美关系的处 Of course, we must continue to pay attention to the external
理之外，我们还得注意中欧关系、中日关系，还有中国和东 economic environment. In addition to the Sino-US relations, we
must also pay attention to Sino-European relations, Sino-Japanese
南亚、中国和拉丁美洲、中国和非洲，等等，有这些多边关
系合在一起处理，是中国和外部世界继续在比较优势利益方 relations, and China and Southeast Asia, China and Latin America,
China and Africa, etc.. These multilateral relations are handled
面确实有共同之处这个客观基础之上，大家继续做生意、继 together.
续共享产业链的基本盘。如果把全球共享一个供应链产业链
的特点看清楚之后，面对中美之间美国对中国的打压遏制， Some courageous investors and entrepreneurs have set us
examples. Despite the tension of Sino-US trade, Tesla’s Elon
我们会更有底气。美国作为老大压制我们已是必选的动作，
但是它又不可能跳出中美在产业链上还是你中有我、我中有 Musk suddenly went to Shanghai and signed a contract with the
Mayor of Shanghai to build the world’s largest single foreign-
你的这个基本特征，以及完全扭转发展的大趋势。中国和其
invested factory. Within only about one year, Tesla’s new model
它方面进一步的互动，有可能又回过头来反制美国，即以多 vehicles have been born on the production line in Shanghai. It is
边博弈制约中美的双边博弈。一些有胆识的投资家、企业家， a win-win situation for China and the United States. Under the
还是该出手就出手：中美贸易剑拔弩张的情况之下，特斯拉 impact of the pandemic, we need to still maintain a global vision.
的男神式企业家马斯克突然到上海和上海市长签约，建全球 V.The New Economy and New Engine
最大规模的外商投资单体工厂，一年多时间就在生产线上源
源不断地把特斯拉新能源汽车生产出来了，这对于中美之间 In the specific case where our own industry is sandwiched and
是不是双赢？是不是一个市场潜力被双方认可以后形成的亮 becomes a “world factory”, there is also a comparative advantage.
点呢？这都说明你中有我、我中有你基本面的因素，并没有 China is the only economy in the world, which encompasses the
由于贸易摩擦和疫情冲击而消除，我们还是要抓住基本面， whole list of 666 subdivision industries, labelled by the United
Nations. This continues to demonstrate China’s comparative
争取把一些可做的事情做好。中国人自己往外走，像福耀玻 advantage in the international competition. The next 5 to 10 years
璃到美国，一二十年前就跟着产能走作投资布局，曹德旺说 will be very critical for the real economy is upgraded to medium-
我是中国也发展，美国也发展，这就是全球眼光。在疫情冲 high end.
击之下仍然保持全球眼光，该走出去的，还要积极考虑应对
复杂局面，继续往外走。 The obvious bright spot is the new economy. In making a
difference in investment, the “two new and one key” policy is to
五、新经济与新动能 support new infrastructure and new urbanization as well as key
constructions of traditional transportation and hydro. In fact, the
我们自己的产业被夹在中间的成为“世界工厂”的具体情况 new infrastructure relies on the new economy, and complement
下，还有一个阶段性的比较优势：我们在联合国产业细致分 with the old infrastructure. In addition, there have been a lot of
工的 666 个细分产业名录里，是唯一一个占全了的经济体， new infrastructures in the past few years, and certainly promote
构成了中国在国际竞争中仍有的吸引力和相对优势，我们只 the upgrading and development of the old infrastructure.
要能够把握住 5－10 年的时间窗口，把自己的实体经济向中 The expansion of domestic demand with investment shall bring
高端升上去，我们就可以摆脱“两面夹击”。 about the increase of the potential effective investment and also
the growth of driving sustainable consumption. The effective
在有所作为的投资上，“两新一重”，首先是支持新基建， interaction between consumption and investment will lead to
还有新型城镇化，再有就是传统的交通、水利等重点建设也 sustainability in the process of China’s economic upgrading and
要发挥重要作用。实际上新经济所依托的新基建，跟老基建 development. The leading role of the new economy brought about
一定是在实际生活当中相得益彰、综合布局的。任何一个新 by this new infrastructure will give the main support to the future
区，一个增长级的区域，不可能只是新基建，一定会把新基 development.
建和所有的开发事项合在一起，有一个通盘规划。而且许多 VI.The Opening-up of Financial Industry
地方前些年已经做了不少新基建，客观上也在促进老基建的
升级发展。 Let me lastly briefly talk about the observation from the
perspective of banking and finance. Obviously, the impact of the
以投资支撑着我们扩大内需，带来的是有效投融资拉动可持 pandemic on the banking business has been observed in the short
续消费潜力的释放。消费和投资的有效互动，在中国经济升 term, and the service has been greatly affected. In general, the
级发展过程中间，会形成一个可持续性，这种新基建所带来 emergency loans have now joined the financial discount policy
的新经济的引领作用，又会对未来发展的后劲，给出最主要 factor. The key is how to reach the grassroots level as much as
possible. Reducing distortions is basically objective and fair, and
的支撑力。
can achieve the best possible results in accordance with the
intentions of decision-makers. In the process of resuming
六、开放的中国金融行业
production, the indirect finance of banks is of course very
最后，我还要简单说一下对银行、金融这个视角的观察。显 important, however, direct finance should also be developed with
然疫情对于银行业务的影响，短期已经领教了，门店服务受 greater attention. China’s financial diversification is inadequate,
到很大的冲击，但是总体来说，这已经过去了；应急贷款现 and the proportion of direct finance is low. In the financial further
reforms, more work shall be done in the field of direct finance in
在已经加入了财政贴息政策因素，关键怎么真正到了基层以 order to improve financial diversification.
后尽可能减少扭曲，基本上能做到客观公正，能够按照决策
层的意图和客观的需要达到尽可能好的效果。在复工复产推
动过程中间，银行的间接金融当然非常重要，直接金融也要
得到更加重视的长足发展。中国的金融多样化不足，直接金
融的比重偏低，金融深化改革中金融多样化方面，在直接金
融这个领域还要有更多的攻坚克难，让中国的金融体系更加
接近现代市场体系中直接金融发挥更大作用的境界。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE AUGUST 2020 Page 45 第45页