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加中金融

我个人感觉是，如果不说特殊因素，只说过去的经验数据 Personally, I think that if special factors are excluded, it is very
来看今年两会上提的年度必须达到的目标——GDP 因为有 certain that under the policies of so-called “six guarantees” and “six
巨大的不确定性避而不谈了，但是非常肯定地说在“六 stabilization”, the annual increase in new jobs in cities and towns
保”、“六稳”的背景下，年度城镇新增就业岗位要增加 will increase by 9 million. Such a new addition of employment
should bring the GDP to be 4% or a little higher.
900 万个，这 900 万新增就业所需要的支撑，应该是 GDP
4%或再高一点儿的支撑。在这个严峻局面之下，虽然大家 Under the current grim situation, although everyone is feeling very
现在感受都不好，市场有非常多的焦虑之处，企业特别是 bad now, the capital market also has shown a lot of anxieties. The
实体经济困难重重，但从短期看到中长期，应该讲中国发 private enterprises, still face many difficulties, but from medium to
展的根本动力和资源供给的可持续性，这个基本盘没有变。 long term perspective, it should be noted that the fundamental
driving forces of China’s economic development and the
中国现在处于推进现代化的具体的工业化、城镇化、市场 sustainability of resource supply have not changed.
化、国际化和信息化综合形成的一个发展大势之中。中国
China now embraces industrialization, urbanization, marketing
在弥合二元结构中，与全球做生意支撑现代化“和平崛 economy, internationalization and information that contribute to her
起”，还是有非常值得肯定的基础，现在来看还有可观的 modernization. In bridging the dual structure, China still has a very
成长性。决策层和管理部门所说的“中国经济长期向好的 solid foundation for doing business with the world to support her
基本趋势没有变”，确实不是空话。中国的经济有了前面 “peaceful rise” of modernization. What the decision-makers’
几十年的发展之后，工业化走到了什么程度？中国沿海的 assertion that “the basic trend of China’s long-term economic
growth has not changed” is still true. After the development of
一些高地有工业化后期的特点，而中部还有西部地区，很
China's economy in previous decades, how far has industrialization
多就是中期特征，甚至有的就是初期。全中国应该是从中
gone? Some areas along the coast of China have shown the
期到中后期演变的过程，工业化从中期到中后期，再往后
characteristics of somewhat late industrialization, while the central
走它的空间还相当可观。印证这样一个认识，有工信部领 and western regions are still clearly in the medium stage, and even
导所说到的中国的制造业现在大而不强，在全球连第二阵 in some areas in the early stage of industrialization. The whole
营也还没进去，有一系列的数据印证；有决策层所肯定的 country should be in a process of evolution from the mid-term to the
中国仍然是世界上最大的发展中经济体；也有在分析中可 mid-to-late period of stages of industrialization. Quoted by the
技术性援引的城镇化指标—如到了工业化的后期，城镇化 leaders of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,
China's manufacturing industry is rather large but not very strong,
应该完成高速发展阶段，或者基本完成它的高速发展阶段。
and even has not entered the second-tier of the industrialized
中国现在城镇化的数据，不能只看常住人口达 60%出头， countries. Urbanization should show its high speed of growth during
如只看这一指标，完成城镇化高速发展阶段，可能只有 10 the last stage of industrialization.
个点的空间了。但是中国还有一个很低的指标，就是户籍 China’s current urbanization should not just focus on the
人口的城镇化率，现在只有 44%出头儿。户籍人口城镇化 urbanization resident population reaching 60%, which may imply
率不欠账，它的真实性是靠得住的，我们可以拿后边的指 only 10% more space to grow to complete the rapid development of
标来做些向上的调整——常住人口规模可观，也要认它一 urbanization. However, the household registered urbanized
部分的账，拿来综合一下（比如北京 2000 多万常住人口， population only reaches 44%. The urbanization rate of the
household registration population should be reliable. Combining
其中有好几百万是没有户籍的、没有完成真正城镇化条件
both urbanization indicators, China’s current urbanization level is
匹配的社会成员）。两个城镇化指标全国综合下来，我觉
likely around 50%. According to international experience,
得中国现在真实城镇化水平也就是 50%上下，按照国际经
urbanization should reach 70% to complete its rapid development
验走到 70%才能离开其高速发展阶段，一年上去一个百分 stage, which may still take about 20 years for China. This is a
点，也还得走 20 年，这是工业化和城镇化紧密结合在一 development process in which industrialization and urbanization are
起的发展过程。我们看到了自己的不足，同时也看到的是 closely integrated. In this sense, China, as still the world's largest
我们还有值得重视的可观的成长性，还有发展空间。这个 populated country, is also the world's most promising emerging
空间中自然就有韧性和回旋余地，所以中国作为世界第一 market economy. Accompanying industrialization and urbanization,
we must unswervingly continue to promote marketing economy.
人口大国，也是世界上潜力最大的新兴市场经济体。与工
业城镇化相伴随，我们要坚定不移继续推进市场化。中央 In summary, this year’s economic growth pattern shall be “lower in
最近发文件特别强调了要素市场的建设和整个社会主义市 the first half before going higher in the second half”. However, there
场经济怎么加以完善，坚持这样的市场化，又必然伴随着 are also challenges and opportunities ahead. Please let me share four
全面开放、和全世界作生意的供需互动的国际化，以及我 perspectives to illustrate.
们要抓住现在“新经济”概念之下数字经济带来的“信息
化”的潮流。这些使整个中国发展过程中的成长性，在潜
力空间方面来讲是实实在在的，也是可以在现实生活中观
察到的。中国要在进一步发展过程中间，从有效投融资切
入，带出消费潜力的释放，这是看清中长期中国发展中成
长性相关的供给和资源供给的可持续性。

说了这三个层面后，我们要根据当前的情况，谈谈眼下突
出的问题。今年的经济运行，一定是“前低后高”。可从
四个视角来作分析。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE AUGUST 2020 Page 41 第41页