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第二， 贸易摩擦增加不确定性 2. The Trade Conflicts Have Increased Uncertainties

第二层就是不期而至的贸易摩擦。我们不希望出现这种情 The second layer is the unexpected trade conflicts between US and
况，但是它来了，这使在 2015 年一直到 2018 年上半年， China. We don’t want this to happen, but nonetheless it had come,
which caused to interrupt the economic growth of 6.7%-6.9%
长达 12 个季度运行的平台状态（6.7%到 6.9%中高速状态） medium-to-high range for up to 12 quarters between 2015 and the
被中美贸易摩擦的不期而至所打断，整个经济运行又击穿 first half of 2018,. The economic growth was then further broken
了 6.7%的下限继续往下走，2018 年当年报的是 6.6%， through the 6.7% lower limit and continued to go down. In 2018, the
2019 年四季度已经落到 6%的整数关口上。 annual growth target was 6.6%. In the fourth quarter of 2019, it has
fallen to the 6% range.
中国发展的外部环境，确实已有重大的变化，领导人说到
“百年未有之大变局”。中美的双边关系已经回不到从前。 The external environment for China’s development has indeed
最近一段时间，好了一些以后，形势又变得更为严峻，甚 undergone major changes. The Chinese senior leader said that “the
至美国特朗普不断说要彻底脱钩。当然，这也是一种他的 current changes have not been seen in a hundred years”. The
bilateral relationship between China and the United States may not
姿态和施加压力时带有技巧的操作。实际上，中美之间要 return to the good old days. Recently, the situation has become more
完全脱钩是空谈的。中美现在实际上已经是共享全球产业 severe, and even the President of the United States has repeatedly
链，要想在中美之间贸易归零，那是不可能的。在剑拔弩 talked about a complete decoupling. We must strive for “fighting but
张的时候，我们动不动还是宣布购买美国的大豆，美国也 without breaking”. China and the United States have actually shared
有这种强烈的出口要求，还有其他相关的很多贸易事项， global industrial chains. It is impossible to achieve zero trade
比如贸易摩擦打响之后，几年下来美国市场的电视机、计 between China and the United States. We also continue to purchase
算机，主要的进口国还是中国，占了它整个市场份额的 60% soybeans from the United States. The United States also has strong
多，只比原来的 70%降了几个点。这种“斗而不破”的客 export demands, and there are many other related trade items. For
观的物质基础是存在的。 example, even though after the trade conflicts started, televisions
and computers in the U.S. market still were imported from China,
至于说高端，中美之间早就脱钩，一直没有挂上——我们 which accounted for more than 60% of its entire market share, only
一直想花大价钱买美国核心、前沿的科技成果，但是人家 a few points lower than the 70% prior to the trade conflicts.
就是不卖，所以早已经是脱钩状态，从来没有真正接上过。 “Fighting but without breaking” is possible!
但是在中高端、中端、中低端，仍然有很多生意可做。在 On the other hand, in term of high-tech, China and the United States
整个的发展过程中间，我们还是要认同，在反全球化的不 probably already is on the way of decoupling. China would like to
利影响之下，逐步建设和达到人类命运共同体，仍然是我 spend a lot of money on the core and cutting-edge scientific and
们必须坚持的主流，而且是世界文明发展中会体现出更多 technological products of the United States, but US just didn’t want
重要支持力量的不可扭转的趋势。中国必须在打造人类命 to sell. But in terms of the medium-high-end, mid-end and low-end,
there are still many rooms to work on. Even under the adverse
运共同体的过程中间争取和平崛起。 impact of anti-globalization, gradually building and reaching a
community of humankind destiny is still the mainstream we must
第三， 新冠疫情对经济复苏影响重大
adhere to, and it will show more importance in the development of
在第二重的不利因素叠加上来以后，当下我们感受到，最 world civilization. And it shall be irreversible. China must strive for
有冲击力的是第三重因素，就是新冠疫情，它突发之后使 a peaceful rise in the process of building a community with a shared
经济运行形成了第三种不利因素的叠加。在这种情况之下 future for mankind.
怎么认识发展大势呢？ 3. The Shock of Covid-19 on the Economic Recovery is
Significant
在我们当下看，2020 年第一季度的情况是负 6.8%的经济
增速，如果从绝对值来说，从原来的 6%落到负 6.8%是跌 Besides the second-level unfavorable factors, we now feel that the
掉了近 13 个百分点。有三个产业不同的数据，二产跌得 most important factor is the third-level factor, COVID-19. Under
最深。但是这个变化中间，我们已经在一季度里看得出来， such a pandemic shock, how to understand the development trend?
合计负 6.8%的经济下行，最主要发生在 1－2 月份，特别 In our current view, the situation in the first quarter of 2020 is
是疫情最严重的 2 月，它把整个经济拉到很低的水平，3 negative economic growth rate of 6.8%, if in absolute terms, from
月是往上找补了的。3 月份当月 GDP 的增速已经回升到负 the original 6% to negative 6.8% is a drop of nearly 13 percentage
的 0.8%，这样合在一起，一季度是负的 6.8%。4 月份、5 points. The three major industries were affected differently, among
月份、二季度的情况，从工业增加值来说已经明显往上走， which the secondary industry has fallen the most. We have already
found that in the first quarter that a total of 6.8% of the economic
分别报出来的是 3.8%和 4.4%以上，带动二季度经济增速， downturn occurred mainly in January-February, especially in
不敢说能把上半年拉到告别负值吧，但是应该能充抵掉相 February when the pandemic was the most severe. It pulled the
当大一部分。 entire economy to a very low level. The level rebounded in March.
The situation in April, May, and the second quarter had obviously
剩下的三、四季度，如果不出特别意外的情况，“前低后 improved, at least in terms of industrial added value. The industrial
高”会延续。三四季度如果能够在现在出台的“非常时期 added values were 3.8% and 4.4%, respectively. I estimate that the
有非常之策”的举措综合作用之下，假定三四季度都能够 economic growth rate of the second quarter of the year should offset
是 6%的增长速度，那么全年能有望达到 3%左右的增速。 the negative value of the first quarter to considerably.
如果我们做得更加有效一些，也不排除我们这一年度可以 In the remaining third or fourth quarter, if there are no special
往上高看到 4%左右。
surprises, the “first lower and then higher” pattern will continue.
Assuming a growth rate of 6% in the third and fourth quarters, the
annual growth rate would be expected to reach about 3% in 2020. If
the policies become more effectively, we may able to find a growth
rate of about 4% for the whole year.

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