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加中金融

在疫情冲击下的中国目标、态势、挑战与机遇

China’s Goals, Trends, Challenges and Opportunities In the Epidemic

【作者】 贾康博士：中国第十一届、十二届全国政协委员，华夏新供给经
济学研究院院长。曾长期担任财政部财政科学研究所所长。贾康博士是孙
冶方经济学奖、黄达—蒙代尔经济学奖和中国软科学大奖获得者。

About the author. Dr. Kang Jia, member of CPPCC, the President of China
Academy of New Supply-side Economics. He was the President of the
Research Institute of Fiscal Science of Ministry of Finance. He obtained
many prestigious prizes in economic research.

我和大家就“在疫情冲击下的中国目标、态势、挑战与机遇” I would like to address China’s economic goals, challenges and
从三层背景和四个视角进行分析，然后分享我对中国经济发展 opportunities with the pandemic shock from three layers of
的挑战和机遇的几个观点。 background factors and four perspectives.
I. Three Layers of Background Factors
一、三层背景因素
1. The Economic medium-high growth is a new normal
第一，经济中高速发展是新常态
Firstly, China’s economy had been in a very obvious downward
首先，在中国 2010 年以后，经济已经处于非常明显的下行过 trend since 2010, which reflected the transition of undergoing the
程，这个下行过程反映的是我们在进入中等收入阶段以后必然 middle-income stage. In 2010, after successfully fighting against the
要经历的阶段转换。2010 年的时候，中国成功地抵御了世界 global financial crisis, China entered the rapid growth of over 10%
金融危机冲击之后，曾经报出当年 10%以上高速增长的状态， that year. This was the result of the reforms, opening-up and
这是前面的几十年改革开放、解放生产力带来的，到这时候算 liberation of productivity in the previous decades. By then, the
annualized growth rate of 9.8% of the last three decades, which was
总账 30 年年均增长 9.8%，是高度一致的，是与小平南巡确立
市场经济目标模式后，近二十年间年平均 10%以上一脉相承的。 highly consistent with the annualized growth rate of more than 10%
during the two decades since the market economy model was
但中央非常清楚地认识到必须做出重要的调整，这一年年尾的 confirmed by Mr. Xiaoping Deng in 1992.
经济工作会上，提出了稳字当头的经济方针，要求有意识地掌 However, the central government clearly recognized that important
握经济增长速度从高速到中高速的调整转变，实现软着陆。这 adjustments must be made. At the central government’s annual
个过程中要特别注意以结构优化为支撑，转向变为中高速以后 economic meeting at the end of the year, an economic policy based
的高质量发展。这个方针确定以后，实际的变化过程，是在两 on stable growth was proposed by the government, requiring
年之内增长速度迅速落到 8%以下，再往后三年，相对平缓地 consciously adjusting the economic growth from high-speed to
medium-high speed, to achieve a soft landing. During this process,
落到 7%以下。
special attention should be paid to structural reform. Since this
现已看得很清楚，2010 年两位数的增长，就是在中国高速增 policy was implemented, the annual growth rate fell rapidly to less
长阶段最后一年的回光返照。当年报出，年人均国民收入统计 than 8% within two years since 2010, and then gradually dropped to
下来是 4000 美元左右，坐稳了中等收入经济体这把交椅之后， less than 7% in the next three years.
必然要经历告别经济起飞阶段、速度由高向低转变的这样一个 It is now clear that the double-digit growth in 2010 was the last
过程。对这个转变，我们自己的主观诉求，是不可避免的转变 episode of China's high-speed economic growth. According to the
中不能让速度一低再低，要落到中高速上来完成 L 型的转换。 annual report, the annual per capita national income was estimated
这个 L 型的转换，尾巴拉出来以后，应该是中高速、以结构优 to be about 4,000 US dollars. After stabilizing the position of the
middle-income economy, it will inevitably go through a process of
化支撑的高质量平台发展状态，这是这个阶段总体上非常明显
the end of economic take-off stage and changing the speed from high
的指导方针。在 2013 年以后，决策层明确表述为认识、适应
to medium-high. For this transformation, we can not allow the speed
和引领新常态，这个新常态要求的是高质量发展，升级的发展。
slipping to be lower and lower, and must fall to the medium-high
这是我认为必须明确认识的第一层决定中国经济下行的背景因 speed to complete the L-shaped conversion. Such a L-shaped
素。 conversion, should be a medium-high speed and high-quality growth
supported by structural reform, which has been a very clear
guideline so far. Starting from 2013, the policy-making body clearly
stated that such a new normal should be recognized and adapted,
which required both high-quality development and industrial
upgrading. This is the first layer of background factors that I think
must be clearly understood to determine China's economic downturn
growth trend.

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