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加中金融

其他的指标中，各位朋友们一定会继续关注先行指数 PMI，这 Among other indicators, the leading index PMI has also been
个指标合在一起修匀处理，可看它来印证运行态势。它是非常 paid attention. After the pandemic arrived, it fell at once to only
敏感的，在疫情来了以后一下掉下去，落到只有 38，那是非 38, which was very abnormal, and then quickly rebounded to the
常反常的，随后又迅速恢复到荣枯分界线附近了。 reflection line between the expansion and recession.
Although there are obvious problems in imports and exports, it
进出口方面虽然有明显的问题，但是前一段来说，和一般的预
is not so severe yet. Imports increased by 1.6% and exports
期相比，并没有那么严峻，有人说要断崖式出现非常糟糕的、
increased by 5% last year. However, the combined imports and
深度的负增长的局面。我们从去年来看，总体情况还说得过去， exports in the first quarter are -6.6%, which is similar to GDP of
进口增长 1.6%，出口增长 5%，现在一季度进出口合计为负增 Q1. However, it is very likely that while GDP in Q2 goes up, the
长 6.6%，跟 GDP 差不多，但是很可能二季度的情况是 GDP 往上 combined imports and exports are still negative, because many
走，但是进出口情况还是负值，因为国际主要贸易伙伴很多的 of the main international trading partners have had a much
情况都不如中国，他们的复工复产节奏明显比我们慢，很多订 slower pace of resumption of production. Many orders have been
cancelled, and new orders cannot be generated.
单也都取消，或者不能有新的订单生成，这方面还得继续观察，
而且很大的不确定性，就是在外贸这块。 Generally speaking, the Chinese economy, a growth rate target
of about 6% has been set prior to covid-19 in 2020. Now the
如果很粗线条地做一个勾画，中国经济，新冠之前本来应该提
government does not set a growth target. In fact, to support
2020 年争取 6%左右的增幅，即从上一年说的 6%到 6.5%的增长 employment, the growth should still be at least more than 3%,
速度往下调它的重心，现在看两会虽然没有明确提这个目标， preferably at a rate of about 4%. Of course, some researchers
其实要支撑就业，还是要有 3%以上，最好能够到 4%左右的速 have suggested that it is necessary to focus on "relative growth
度。当然也有研究者提出，要观察中国发展态势，还要提“相 rate". The United States is likely to see a negative growth this
对增速”，美国今年很可能就是负增长，有人悲观的说负 6%， year. Some pessimistic estimates suggest negative 6%, with
optimistic estimates at about negative 3%. If China can reach 3%,
乐观一点说负 3%，如果中国能达 3%，那么对于美国这个头号
so the relative growth rate is 6%.
强国我们的相对速度是高出 6 个百分点，我们还是会继续缩小
跟世界头号强国的距离。 While supporting the growth rate, the main question is still about
whether the economic structure is optimized and the quality is
在增长速度支撑方面，主要伴随的问题是结构是否优化，质量 improved. At the same time, as China’s per capita national
是否提高，但同时也不能够忽视它在发展态势上的意义——就 income is reaching the threshold of 10,000 US dollars, it is very
是我们一定要在中国人均国民收入已经达到 1 万美元关口以后， important to prevent slipping into the middle income trap.
严防滑入中等陷阱，这一点在中央文件表述的“矛盾累积隐患 Statistics have shown that over 100 years of more than 100
叠加”所带来的不利因素表现出来以后，已让我们越来越有所 middle-income economies in the previous 70 years, 90% could
not cross over the threshold of becoming a high-income
感受。很多的经济体——在全球来说是绝大多数，于前面 70
economy. Whether China can withstand the test of history and
多年间 100 多个达到中等收入阶段的经济体，90%到了这个跨
avoid sliding into the so-called middle-income trap, we must also
越门槛成为高收入经济体的关口面前而迟迟过不去，中国能不
observe closely. Under the support of a certain growth rate, we
能够经受历史考验，避免滑入所谓中等收入陷阱，我们还必须 must improve the economic quality and strive to overcome the
紧密观察。一定要在有一定的速度支撑之下，提高我们的发展 “middle income trap” indicated by this statistical phenomenon in
质量和发展的后劲，争取未来 5-10 年，跨越这个统计现象表 the next 5-10 years.
明的“中等收入陷阱”。
We cannot ignore the existing problems. The core issue at the
从全球经济来看，去年合计不高于 3%，中国经济增量贡献继 macro level of China, is still a supply-side structural issue that
has been clearly defined by the central government, and how to
续成为第一位（美国去年也就是不超过 2.5%的增长）。今年
realize the conversion between old and new engine of the
中国经济如果从全球增量来说，估计又是第一位的贡献。虽然
economy. The structural imbalances and growth quality issues
我们的增长速度自己跟自己比还是显著下行，但是确实我们可
are prominent. From the perspective of things, there are the
以成为主要经济体、大规模经济体里战胜疫情中在今年表现最 environmental crisis factors represented by smog, water
好的国度。 pollution, soil pollution, and food safety issues that the entire
society must face. From the perspective of human beings, unfair
说到这些值得肯定之处的同时，我们不能忽视自己存在的问题。 income distribution and excessive economy gaps between
中国宏观层面的核心问题，“矛盾主要方面”仍然是中央早已 different people can lead to instability of the society. These two
经明确的供给侧结构问题，怎么实现新旧动能转换的问题。我 perspectives have to be combined. At the macro level of China,
们的结构失衡、增长质量问题突出。从物的视角来看，雾霾代 the so-called structural optimization is to optimize of the quality
表的环境危机因素后面，还有水流的污染、土壤的污染，以及 and efficiency of the entire supply system including industrial
structure, regional structure, distribution structure, and etc., In
全社会都不能不面对的食品安全问题。从人的视角来看，人际
order to create a sustainable development.
关系方面，都在关心收入分配怎么解决不公、差距过大等一系
列对社会可能带来不安定、不和谐的问题，要探求怎么使之得 After China's industrial system and manufacturing become
到化解。这两大视角合在一起，在中国宏观层面上来说，所谓 “world factories”, the pressure to upgrade itself is very obvious.
的结构优化，是从制度结构优化带出整个供给体系质量和效率 How can “made in China” become “created in China” and
“Smart Manufacturing” in China? Compared with the high-end,
的优化，涉及整个产业结构、区域结构、分配结构等的优化，
although the technology is not as good as others, but the costs are
才能掌握好可持续发展的过程。
cheaper than others. Compared with the low-end, although the
中国的工业体系、制造业，变成“世界工厂”之后，升级的压 costs are no longer competitive, the technology is better and the
industry chain is better. Sandwiched in between, how far can we
力是非常明显的。中国制造要怎么样变成“中国创造”、中国
go? The time window may be about 5 to 10 years. These are
“智能制造、智慧制造”，我们必须经受挑战和考验。中国实
China’s opportunities and also challenges.
体经济质量不往上走，我们夹在中间的状况不改动，会越来越
被动。我们现在和高端比，虽然技术不如人家，但是我们比人
家便宜；和低端比，虽然我们的成本已经比拼不了，但是我们
技术比它好，产业链比它全——夹在中间，我们还能走多远，
这个时间窗口大概 5－10 年，这就是中国的机遇与挑战。

CCFA JOURNAL OF FINANCE AUGUST 2020 Page 43 第43页