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二、四个视角 II. Four Perspectives

第一，短期和中长期衔接的视角 1. Between the short- and medium-long term
我们要在短期和短中期不断面对不确定性的情况下，把握确 Despite the uncertainties in the short and medium term, we must
定性：如果说看到两年以上，我总觉得从概率上来说，还是 seek certainties in the medium to long term. From a two-year
horizon, it will be high probability that there will be effective drugs
有相当高的概率，出现防病的疫苗和治病比较有效的药物
and vaccine against covid-19. Two years later, there should be
（开始人们寄希望年内出疫苗，现在专家的口气调低了，有 obvious progress in disease prevention and treatment. The
人甚至说要两年左右才能出疫苗，但是另外也有令人鼓舞的
connection between short- and medium-long term should be
消息，是疫苗研制进展也还有亮点，只能是拭目以待）。现 managed dynamically.
在特效药还无望，但有效的药品还是不断有报道，两年后，
2. Between the aggregate and structure
防病和治病都应该有明显的进展。至于今年的确定性也是有
的，虽然还有种种困扰，但是前低转后高，全国已成定局。 We must pay special attention to expanding domestic demand, but
前面已经讲到了四、五月份的数据，明显亮点在表现出来。 this aggregate adjustment must be combined with structural reforms
短期和中长期的衔接，要在动态中把握。 on the supply side to lead to improvements in the quality and
efficiency of the entire supply system. The external pressure also
第二，总量和结构的视角上 forces us to optimize the structure. Under the shock of the pandemic,
with the structure optimization as the main line of high-quality
我们要特别注意扩大内需，但这个总量调节一定要坚定不移 development, domestic demand is expanded on the one hand, supply
地结合推进供给侧结构性改革，带来整个供给体系质量、效 management should also be improved on the other hand..
率的提高，而且现在的压力也倒逼我们必须把优化结构这件
3. Between the inventory and increment
事情处理好。疫情冲击之下，抓住优化结构为主线的高质量
发展，这一命题绝对没有变化，扩大内需，是要在需求管理 In addition to mobilizing inventory potential, it is also necessary to
的同时，一定加上可不断总结的供给管理值得肯定的经验。 increase the performance of increment. Increasing the performance
of increments is generally a slow variable, but under the pressure of
第三，从存量和增量的视角来看 the pandemic, the combination of inventory and increment will
definitely increase the potential of absolute quantity and scale, and
除了动员存量潜力之外，也要于提升增量绩效这方面加力。 at the same time improve qualities.
我们的综合国力决定了存量支持已经体现出来，在应急支撑
整个基本面运行方面，我们的回旋余地体现了应急地动员存 4. Between the policy and its implementation
量以支持增量的较好表现。比如说一开始大家觉得口罩供不
The senior leaders said that the pandemic is a big test of the
应求，但包括比亚迪这样的企业，都可在几天之内形成合乎 governance system. China can truly improve its governance system
质量要求的成规模的口罩生产线，还有防护服的生产线。增 and governance capabilities in accordance with the internal
量方面绩效的提升，一般来说是慢变量，但是在疫情压力之 requirements of modernization.
下，存量和增量的结合，一定还会在把绝对数量、规模这方
III. The Inflation and Economic Growth Targets
面的潜能激发出来的同时，又施加上提高质量这方面的诉求。
有一些中国出口的防疫用品，被国外批评说质量有问题之后， After making several observations from different perspectives, we
客观上也逼着我们找到自己的短板，尽快提高质量。 have to talk about the prices that people care about very much. The
CPI that is directly related to the lives of ordinary people has risen
第四， 还有一个视角就是政策及其实施 significantly after the fourth quarter of 2019. Largely due to the
shortage of pork, the overall CPI has increased rapidly. Since then,
领导人说这次是治理体系能力的大考，在国家治理现代化的 the supply of pork has started to increase. In addition to large
概念下，全面考虑中国怎么样把治理体系、治理能力真正按 imports, the stock of live pigs has risen, and new supply enters into
照现代化的内在要求，使之得到进步。 the market, which has also eased the supply pressure of other meat,
poultry and eggs-related categories. It is not too difficult to control
三、通胀与经济增长目标 CPI target within 3.5%. There has already seen a very obvious
downward adjustment trend.
做了几个不同视角的观察以后，我们就要说说市场上老百姓
过日子很关心的物价，大的趋势已可以看出来。老百姓过日 In our analysis, we must also look at the other component of the
子直接相关的 CPI，在 2019 年四季度以后指标明显上升，最 prices, which is PPI. The latest PPI is still in negative territory.
Under the impact of the trade conflicts, it has gone through a period
主要所表现的，就是由于猪肉供不应求带动整个 CPI 比较迅
of negative growth. There is neither inflation nor deflationary
猛地往上提高，其后走到现在，猪肉供应量增加，除了加大
pressure this year.
进口之外，生猪存栏上升，并有出栏的新的供给量正在进入
市场，所以带来了猪肉价格近期平稳以后的开始向下，这又
使其他的肉禽蛋相关品类，也跟着一起缓和了供不应求的局
面。今年 CPI 控制在 3.5%以下的目标应该说没有多大的悬
念，现在已经有非常明显的往下调整的趋势。
我们分析中也必须看整个物价中另外的组成部分，就是生产
资料出厂价格的 PPI，最新的表现是它仍然在负增长。在贸
易摩擦冲击下,它曾走过一段负增长的过程，在疫情期间又
有了一段负增长局面，但是处理得好，今年“非常之策”形
成的合力，是有希望把 PPI 推举到基本消除负值这样的波动
状态上的，这是在物价方面能够看到的比较大的可能性。换
句话说，我们在物价方面，今年总体来说虽然还要密切观察，
但不至于有多么明显的通胀和通缩压力。

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