Page 37 - Jewish News_04-2021

COMMENTARY April 2021 37A

Iran and Israel elections:

two stalemates with uncertain outcomes

By Harold M. Halpern
n this column, I explore the threat ment of less for less; that is, Iran agree- democratic government – the courts, only in opposition to Netanyahu but
of Iran to Israel and the Middle ing to stop its enrichment at its present prosecutors and police – and denigrates otherwise incompatible on social, eco-
IEast, and the upcoming Knesset point and the United States releasing opponents. In summary, the opponents nomic, religious and West Bank issues,
elections on March 23 (occurring after some Iranian funds held in escrow for say Netanyahu is morally unfit to be as well as whom they would accept as
this press deadline). humanitarian purposes. This could lead Prime Minister. Prime Minister.
First to Iran. President Joseph to negotiations to tackle a permanent Backing Netanyahu are Likud, Polls of course change and have
Biden wants the agreement. Religious Zionism and the Haredi par- a degree of inaccuracy. A small shift
United States to A different approach to get Iran to ties, Shas and United Torah Judaism. may be all that is needed. We can better
return to the 2015 the table has been suggested by Amos Opposing him are Yesh Atid, Blue evaluate the likelihood of a coalition as
nuclear deal with Yadlin, a former Israel Defense Forces and White (center parties), Labor and you read this column knowing the elec-
Iran known as the intelligence chief. He argues that max- Meretz (left parties), New Hope and tion results.
Joint Compre- imum economic pressure of sanctions Yamina (right parties), Yisrael Beiteinu Harold Halpern is a retired attorney
hensive Plan of without exemptions should be main- (Russian speaking), Joint List (Israeli residing in Lakewood Ranch. He is a
Action (JCPOA). tained together with a credible plan Arab) and Raam (Israeli Arab). board member of the American Asso-
President Donald to take military action to prevent Iran The latest poll, as I write, is from ciation of Jewish Jurists and Lawyers
Harold M. Halpern Trump withdrew from developing a nuclear capacity. February 26. It shows that the Netanya- and of the West Coast Chapter of the
from the JCPOA in May 2018 and re- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanya- hu block will get 45 seats, the center American Jewish Committee.
instated crippling economic sanctions. hu recently reiterated Israeli policy. Is- and left parties 33 seats, the opposition
However, President Biden will not rael will be ready, with or without an right parties 24 seats, Yisrael Beiteinu Crossword Puzzle
return to the JCPOA until Iran goes agreement, to take unilateral action to eight seats, the Joint List eight seats Solution to puzzle on page 27A
back to the limits, which it has exceed- prevent Iran from developing a nuclear and Raam four seats.
ed, on the amount of permitted urani- weapon, as it did in destroying nuclear For Netanyahu to form a gov-
um enrichment. Moreover, the Biden facilities in both Iraq and in Syria. ernment he would need an additional
administration recognizes a need to We can only stand by to see how 16 seats. Everyone in opposition has
strengthen the agreement, extending the current stalemate plays out. promised not to serve with Netanya-
its duration, tightening inspection and In the meantime, Israel will have hu as Prime Minister except Yamina.
providing for limitations on missile an election on March 23, its fourth in But it is projected to get only 11 seats
development and support of terrorist two years, in an effort to resolve the leaving Netanyahu five votes short if
proxies threatening Israel and the Mid- stalemate in its governance. The first Yamina joined his coalition.
dle East. Until then, the sanctions will two elections failed to produce the ma- The opposition center and left par-
remain in place. jority of 61 votes for a governing coa- ties with the opposition right parties
Iran has responded that it will lition, and the third election produced a and Yisrael Beiteinu would have 63
comply with the restrictions of the coalition of divergent parties unable to seats. It is uncertain if they would form
JCPOA and enter into negotiations for effectively govern. Its failure to adopt a a governing coalition. They are unified
new terms only after the sanctions are budget triggered an automatic dissolu-
released. tion and the fourth election.
The Biden administration and Iran Netanyahu has been Prime Minis-
are stalemated. The President will not ter since 2009. The upcoming election
give up the leverage of sanctions and is dominated by one question, namely,
Iran won’t talk until sanctions are re- to be for Netanyahu or not to be for
moved. It is entirely conceivable that Netanyahu. Those for Netanyahu will
Iran prefers to continue to develop a vote for Likud or for a party which has
nuclear capacity rather than limiting pledged loyalty to him. Those against
its development. The closer it gets to him are the remaining parties which
development, the stronger may become include left, center and right as well as
its bargaining power. On the other Israeli Arab parties.
hand, Iran needs sanction relief to pre- In a nutshell, his supporters argue
vent a further economic collapse. that Netanyahu has brought security
The parties continue to test each within Israel proper, a fundamental
other by low-level military action. concern of Israelis after the terrorist
An Israeli-owned cargo ship suffered attacks of the second intifada of 2000-
an on-board explosion in the Gulf of 2005. Moreover, he has led Israel into
Oman believed to have been caused a strong international position includ-
by Iran. The Biden administration, in ing landmark normalization agree-
apparent retaliation, bombed an Iranian ments with the United Arab Emirates,
supply facility in Syria. Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco, while
Ambassador Dennis Ross, a key overseeing a strong economy until
player for 12 years in developing the Covid.
United States Middle East policy and His opponents argue it is time for
now a Distinguished Fellow at the him to go. He is under serious crimi-
Washington Institute for Near East Pol- nal indictments for bribery and breach
icy, has written that a possible way to of trust as Prime Minister. He divides
break the stalemate is an initial agree- society and attacks the instruments of
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