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MODELING AND ANALYZING THE SPREAD OF COVID-19 DELTA AND

OMICRON VARIANTS USING SEIR SIMULATION IN PYTHON

Faculty of Computer

and Mathematical NAME: MUHAMMAD ZULHARIZ IRFAN BIN MAT IBRAHIM

Sciences SUPERVISOR: MOHD RAHIMIE BIN MD NOOR K242/07

ABSTRACT METHODOLOGY & IMPLEMENTATION

This study formulates and simulates a variant-specific SEIR BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER

model for the Delta and Omicron variants of COVID-19 using FORMULATE THE SEIR MODEL

Python. By analytically deriving and calibrating the

transmission rate (α) based on R₀ values of 5.0 and 9.0,

simulations over 60 days reveal Omicron’s earlier, sharper

infection peak and Delta’s prolonged outbreak. The model

shows both variants disrupt the disease-free equilibrium,

confirming their epidemic potential. This research offers

data-driven insights for public health preparedness in

Malaysia

PROBLEM STATEMENT

Existing SEIR models lack focus on Malaysia-specific

variants.

Transmission rates often not calibrated to actual R₀

values, causing unreliable simulations.

Delta and Omicron differ greatly in transmission and EQUILIBRIUM POINTS

severity, requiring variant-specific modeling.

Disease Free Equilibrium Point (DFEP)

OBJECTIVE

To develop a variant-specific SEIR model for Delta and

Omicron.

To derive and calibrate the transmission rate α from R₀

values.

To simulate and compare the outbreak patterns of both

variants using Python.

RESULT & DISCUSSION

Endemic Equilibrium Point (EEP)

Stability Analysis of the Equilibrium Points

Slower rise and fall of infections DETERMINATION OF ALPHA

Peak: ~700,000 infected on Day 7

Longer outbreak duration

Stretched healthcare pressure

CONCLUSION RECOMMENDATION

This study confirms Omicron's faster Integrate real-time local data for

spread and Delta's prolonged impact in validation.

Expand model with age-stratification,

Malaysia. The calibrated SEIR model

Very sharp infection spike heterogeneous contact rates, and

Peak: ~780,000 infected on Day 5 provides a robust framework for vaccination dynamics.

Shorter and faster outbreak variant-specific public health planning, Use this model to guide Malaysia's

Sudden spike in healthcare burden especially for future outbreak public health strategies during variant-

preparedness specific surges.