Page 21 - Trends

during the time of sanctions, but is now
declining. “In our foreign trade during the
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calendar year, up to December 21, 2017]
the highest fall has been in our trade with
the UAE due to several reasons including
the political one and also our post-sanc-
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Lahouti, head of Iran Exports Confed-
eration, said recently. “During sanctions,
the UAE played the role of a dealer; many
goods were not transported to our ports,
they were shipped to the UAE’s ports and
from there they came to Iran.”
Sanctions, in other words, gave the
UAE a middle-man role it has now lost.
Lahouti cited South Korea and Germany
as countries now dealing directly with
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100 percent growth in trade with Europe
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Political tensions — with Iran backing
Qatar in its stand-off with the GCC —
have hardly helped, with allegations that
banking services and visas have become
more problematic.
Rouhani is struggling to deliver on
promises that the nuclear agreement
would improve Iranians’ economic sit- © Reuters
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KDV OHIW XQHPSOR\PHQW RIÀFLDOO\ DW The IMF believes the Rouhani administration has made progress. Tighter
percent, with youth unemployment at 25
percent. Austerity has also led to a fall fiscal discipline has brought inflation down to aporoximately 11 percent.
in the value of the government cash pay-
ments, introduced in 2010, on which low- country as a whole in 2016-17”. But, in- Salehi-Isfahani tells TRENDS he believes
er-income Iranians rely. Rouhani’s recent WHUHVWLQJO\ KH DOVR ÀQGV WKDW 5RXKDQL·V 5RXKDQL LV RQ WKH ULJKW FRXUVH ´, ZRXOG >DG-
proposal to raise gasoline prices by 50 “austerity” policies have led to “increas- vise him to] use the parliament to revise the
SHUFHQW ZDV DQRWKHU PDMRU ERQH RI FRQ- ing poverty rates for urban areas” and “a budget, to combine energy prices increases
tention in the protests. sharp increase” in rural poverty. with higher cash transfers,” he says. “An-
The BBC’s Persian service published a nouncing the 50 percent increase in gas-
study in January, claiming that poverty in Dilemmas persist oline while slashing the transfer program
Iran had increased by 15 percent in ten This means the economic improve- >FDVK KDQGRXWV@ IRU WKH ORZHU PLGGOH FODVV
\HDUV $FFRUGLQJ WR 'MDYDG 6DOHKL ,VIDK- ment under Rouhani has made little if was bad politics and bad economics.”
ani, Professor of Economics at Virginia any difference to many outside Tehran. Another serious challenge facing Rou-
Tech, who has long studied inequality “The economy has continued to grow in hani was highlighted by IMF representa-
in Iran, the situation is quite a bit more WKH ÀUVW VL[ PRQWKV RI µ ZULWHV WLYH &DWULRQD 3XUÀHOG LQ 'HFHPEHU WKH
FRPSOLFDWHG 8WLOL]LQJ ÀJXUHV IURP ,UDQ·V Salehi-Isfahani, “but we do not yet high level of bad debts left by Ahmadine-
+RXVHKROG ([SHQGLWXUH DQG ,QFRPH 6XU- know if this growth has started to reach MDG·V SRSXOLVW OHQGLQJ SROLFLHV ´$Q DVVHW
YH\ 6DOHKL ,VIDKDQL ÀQGV D ´JHQHUDOO\ down more widely to the poor in small- quality review, related-party lending as-
low rate of poverty, 4.7 percent for the er urban areas.” sessment and a time-bound action plan to

February 2018 | TRENDS 21