Page 23 - Trends

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(including Ali, the parliamentary speak-
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of the amounts of public money given to
leading clerics. “Even religious people
have been shocked by all this informa-
tion,” Golkar tells TRENDS. “For 40
years, there has been talk of the pure val-
ues of the Revolution and a public narra-
tive that the clergy are representatives of
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ure who the Shias believe will one day re-
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between expectation and reality is high.”
Another political challenge is reducing
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of both the IRGC and the religious foun-
dations or Bonyads.“Rouhani’s approach
is not necessarily reduction of their pow-
er per se but bringing about transparen-
cy and accountability,” Farideh Farhi, of
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“This could conceivably lead to a reduc-
tion of their power, since many of these
organizations are not held accountable
because of a lack of transparency.”
It could also mean these bodies pay-
ing more in taxes. “To say the least, for
budgetary purposes, lack of transparency © Reuters
and accountability means many of the
organs engaged in heavy-duty economic
activities don’t pay taxes, either because The regional struggle with Saudi Arabia shows no sign of abating
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cult to track their activities,” says Farhi. and the Trump administration has Tehran firmly in its sights.
“This is why tax revenue as a percentage
of GDP is so low in Iran. It has gone up shortly,” says Farhi. “One likely nod to of abating and the Trump administration
a bit recently, but it is estimated at seven protests would be not increasing the gaso- KDV 7HKUDQ ÀUPO\ LQ LWV VLJKWV ,W DOO DGGV
or eight percent of GDP. Such a low per- line prices, or at least not increasing them up to a very uncertain political and busi-
centage may be sustainable for a country by 50 percent, as proposed. But some ness environment.
with ample fossil fuel revenues and a low parliamentarians are even talking about “There are long-standing problems –
population count, but not Iran.” bringing back rations and multiple prices, Iran’s isolation goes back a long way,”
This is another political challenge. which Rouhani’s economic team is trying says Golkar. “People are not patient – their
Perhaps after the protests, the political very hard to resist.” KRSHV IRU .KDWDPL >0RKDPPDG .KDWD-
FODVV ZLOO WRQH GRZQ LWV LQÀJKWLQJ DQG The 2021 presidential election, when mi, reformist president, 1997-2005] were
mud-slinging. But perhaps it will not. Rouhani will be ineligible to run for a disappointed; those who had hopes for
Politics in Iran has long been highly fac- third consecutive term, is not so far way. $KPDGLQHMDG ZHUH GLVDSSRLQWHG ,UDQLDQV
tionalized and the government will not Also looming is a more opaque battle to are starting to think nothing is going to
have a clear run. “President Rouhani is succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, now change. These grievances remain. Perhaps
not the only player in this game, as the 78, as supreme leader. Also, the regional there won’t be more protests in the next
0DMOHV >SDUOLDPHQW@ ZLOO WDNH XS WKH LVVXH struggle with Saudi Arabia shows no sign few months, but they will happen again.”

February 2018 | TRENDS 23